The DataPoke Foundation publishes nearly 5 million data points covering the Fukushima Disaster.
Please take a look DataPoke Foundation.
- Filed under: Uncategorized
- Date: Oct 28,2011
May 10th - June 15th
Meltdown and Melt-Through
Theories abound about the events at the Fukushima-Diachii Plant in the critical hours following the earthquake on March 11th [please see the timeline below for my most current reconstruction of events at the Fukushima NPP].
TEPCO and Government officials recognized,for sometime, the strong possibility of a meltdown at reactors 1, 2, and 3; but withheld the findings for several weeks before leaking it to the mainstream media. TEPCO released this information only recently in May 15th and 16th press releases.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576325110776621604.html
It was reported, on April 6th (and subsequently scraped from many news publications), that United States Congressman Edward Markey had knowledge of a meltdown in reactor 2.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/uk-japan-markey-idUKTRE73540Y20110406
Measurements and observations, taken by robots and brief human excursions into the plant, show a significant likelihood that fuel pellets, housed in the cores of reactor buildings 1,2, and 3, overheated and melted into molten beads. The molten fuel would have rolled off the reactor core and slumped to the base of the reactor pressure vessel. The concrete and steel, of the pressure vessel, provided little resistance against the molten fuel which continued melting a course through the base of the vessel, eventually breaching the structure and falling to the floor of the outer containment. The outer containment structure , itself constructed of concrete and steel, offered little impediment to the passage of the molten nuclear fuel - reports indicate the fuel melted through the floor of the containment and now exists in the earth beneath the reactor buildings.
Where does the fuel stop? Perhaps, as the movie title suggests, it falls through to China? More conservative estimates suggest the fuel may continue to melt through the gravel and clay until it reaches the water table - which would cool the fuel but also result in an explosion. The truth is I don’t know - nobody knows; This is an unprecedented event with an unpredictable outcome.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/08/fukushima-nuclear-plant-melt-through
Spent Fuel
The assessment and publication of the radioactive releases from the 4 spent fuel pools in reactors 1,2,3 and 4 remains a troubling task. At least one of these pools (the SFP in reactor 3) endured a detonation where radioactive contaminants were violently discharged into higher altitudes. The SFP at reactor 4 also endured a deflagration which left the building without a roof.
Spent fuel pools pose a significant danger because they both contain large amounts of spent nuclear fuel (which can be very radioactive and very hot), and they occupy an area outside of the containment vessel - with sparse shielding to the outside atmosphere (Well, more specifically, nothing remains separating the pool from the atmosphere when the roof and side walls of the building have been blown off - as is the case with reactor buildings 1,3, and 4). This sort of radioactive release is known as a “Core Melt on Fresh Air” because no barrier exist between the radioactive core and the environment.
Here is a good look at the design of the reactor buildings at the Fukushima Daiichi plant (navigate to page 4 of the pdf presentation):
http://www.fairewinds.com/content/3-2011-areva-fukushima-report
Through With Nuclear Winter and With Mr. Prime Minister
For several nations, In slightly more the 2 months time, The Fukushima NPP failure triggers a movement away from nuclear fission as a long term solution to power requirements. Japan, Switzerland, Germany, Italy, Thailand, Malaysia lead the pack as the early adopters of the “No Nuclear Plan”. Several of these nations put into motion plans to both phase-out nuclear power facilities and construct alternative power sources.
German officials agree to close all Nuclear Power Plants by 2021:
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1642266.php/German-coalition-agrees-to-close-nuclear-plants-by-2022
Swiss Cabinet decides to phase-out nuclear power by 2034:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/us-swiss-nuclear-idUSTRE74O4R220110525
Nulcear Power loses it’s appeal:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/nuclear-power-loses-appeal-japan
If you’re one to seek confirmation [of your theories], then the swift and decisive actions of these Nations might validate concerns that the Fukushima NPP failure both exposes the dark heart of homo sapien enterprise and represents a significant risk to all inhabitants of this planet. Of course, seeking only confirmations leads us to an incomplete assessment of the events we aim to explain. So I ask, “Does any observation, measurement, or publication show that the events, transpiring at the Fukushima NPP, pose no threat to the inhabitants of this planet”? If you can find one please leave a comment below.
We are in the fledgling stages of a worldwide experiment - with only a few pieces of observation and unvalidated (and in some cases corrupt) measurements to analyze.
In an interesting development (as I am writing this), which some may have seen coming, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has refused to relinquish his position after a motion of no-confidence from the Japanese parliament.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/video/2011-06/01/c_13905522.htm
Subsequently, The Japanese Government widens the evacuation zone around Fukushima, Halts cooling plans in the reactors with melted cores, prepares to develop an emergency cover that will protect the environment from the radioactive emissions of reactor 1, and revises unrealistic plans to bring the plant under control by the end of the year.
Widening Evacuation Zone
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/japan-widens-nuke-evacuation-zone-but-unlikely-to-punish-those-who-stay/story-e6frf7lf-1226056432864
Halt Cooling Plans
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13404548
Emergency Cover - The emergency cover for reactor 1 is set for completion by the end of June. it will consist of a large metal framework covered by a 1 millimeter thick sheet of polyester. The cover is designed to stem the flow of radioactive particles emitted via steam and smoke.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/15_07.html
http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2019247.ece
Plan revision
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tepco-cant-stabilize-reactors-by-year-end-report-2011-05-29
A Time and a Place for Everything
I suspect the widely accepted source terms, including 10^17bq/day and 5×10^16/day of Iodine-131 and Cesium-137 respectively, require reevaluation due to the likelihood that they were developed with incomplete information and inaccurate assumptions about the magnitude of the releases emanating from the Fukushima NPP.
Some current widely reported source terms include:
Dr. Chris Busby says, “this thing is still fissioning and releasing 10 to the fourteen becquerels a day. This will mean that Sr-90 [strontium 90] and Uranium and particulates will be building up in the USA and Europe.”[15]
Dr. Andreas Stohl and the NILU team use the following terms, “Currently we are using a daily releases distributed evenly of 0.1E18 Bq I-131, 0.1E17 Cs-137, and 0.1E19 Xe-133 per day”.
And Dr. Gerhard Wotowa of ZAMG, “These estimates are uncertainties, only on the scale just so. According to our estimates, we continue to iodine-131 emissions in the order of 10 17 Bq per day from, and of cesium-137 releases between 5 10^15 5 10^16 Bq per day.”
Additionally, NISA doubles the estimated total radiation release in the first 6 days from 370,000 terabecquerels to 770,000 terabecquerels.
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/index.html
http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/fuel-may-have-melted-through-three-japan-reactors-1
Timeline
The following attempts to reconstruct events occurring at the Fukushima NPP since March 11, 2011. Special attention has been made to document all potential releases - with the goal of developing an accurate source term assessment. It’s important to note the dates and times of the potential releases; but I don’t have dates for some events and times remain absent for most. Any help filling in the blanks is appreciated.
Unit 1
March 11 - persistent and prolonged steam emission. [1]
March 11 - Full Fuel melt within core. Containment breach. 16 hours after the earthquake. [5] By 6:50 a.m. March 12, the fuel was likely in a heap at the bottom of the vessel. [21] melted core of the Reactor 1 is not just out of the Reactor Pressure Vessel but out of the Containment Vessel. [20]
March 11 - Neutron beam detection, Chlorine-38,Tellurium-129,Iodine-131 & 132 suggest a possible inadvertent criticality (self sustaining nuclear chain reaction). [1]
March 11 - “The lack of cooling resulted in a zirc water reaction…The water reaction could have continued resulting in major source term release.” [2]
March 11 - “Fuel particulates may have been ejected from the pool…it is also possible material could have come from unit 1.” [2]
March 11 - Valves on the isolation condenser were closed and remained closed until battery power was restored. [21]
March 12 - Deflagration. Roof destroyed. Outer walls breached. [1]
March 12 - Several Steam vents. “To release pressure within reactor unit 1 at Fukushima I, steam is released out of the unit into the air. This steam contains water vapor, hydrogen, oxygen and some radioactive material, mostly tritium and nitrogen-16.”[6]
March 13 - Steam venting. addition of boric acid.[7]
April 7 - rise in temperature and increase in preassure. Spike in radiation in the drywell[16]
April 11 - Coolant injection into reactor 1 interrupted for 50 minutes due to a loss of power. [17]
May 9 - doors to the reactor building are opened releasing 5 x 10^8 becquerels of unfiltered radionactive substance into the atmosphere.[29]
May 22 - TEPCO begins to measure air above the reactor. 360 bq/m3 of cesium-134 were detected. [27]
July 4 - Volume of cooling water to the reactor falls. Decrease may be due to debris build-up within the hoses. No change in pressure or temperature reported. [32]
??? - Melt Through
??? - Main Steam Isolation Valve Leakage. [1]
??? - Mark 1 containment vessel loses integrity and begins to release large amounts of radiation into the environment. [1]
??? - Failure of containment vent. Vents may not close properly. [1]
??? - Concern of re-criticality. Possible periodic chain reactions. [1]
Unit 2
March 11 - persistent and prolonged steam emission. [1]
March 11 - Partial Fuel melt within containment vessel. [1] At 8:35 p.m. the final emergency cooling system at Reactor No. 2 appeared to have stopped. A NISA projection showed fuel in the reactor could start melting by around 1 a.m. [21]
March 11 - damage to SFP. [4]
March 12 - steam vent. [6]
March 15 - 6:15am radiation levels at the plant’s main gate skyrocketing to 11,930 microsieverts per hour at around 9 a.m. containment breach via internal hydrogen explosion in “pressure suppresion room”. [3][9][10][11][24]
March 15 - pressure in the pressure vessel began dropping precipitously during the night ,falling to almost the same level as the outside atmosphere. [23]
March 16 - Pressure in the surrounding containment vessel rose in the afternoon [23]
March 21 - white smoke and steam.
March 30 - April 12 - no pressure in containment vessel indicates a leak. Possibly no containment or reactor integrity. [1]
May 22 - TEPCO officials confirm continued steam emissions from SFP. [26]
June 12 - Filtered venting of radioactive steam inside the reactor building commences.[22]
June 19 - Doors to the reactor building will be opened to decrease the 99.9% humidity within the reactor. unknow amout of unfiltered radioactive subastance will be released into the atmoshpere.[30]
??? - Melt Through
??? - Main Steam Isolation Valve Leakage [1]
??? - Mark 1 containment vessel loses integrity and begins to release large amounts of radiation into the environment. [1]
??? - Failure of containment vent. Vents may not close properly. [1]
??? - Concern of re-criticality [1]
Unit 3
March 11 - persistent and prolonged steam emission. [1]
March 11 - Fuel melt within containment vessel. Containment breach. [1]
March 12 - Partial/Full Fuel melt.[5] Fuel in reactor three took about 60 hours to melt and that the reactor melted down 100 hours after the magnitude nine quake struck.
March 13 - steam venting. addition of boric acid.[7]
March 14 - Violent detonation is spent fuel pool. Roof and walls of reactor building are badly compromised.[8] Possible exothermic reaction inside the pool. High levels of Iodine-131 indicate a possible prompt moderated criticality within the SFP. Significant amount of fuel possibly volatilized. Explosion probably occurred at the bottom of the pool. Possible chemical reaction between uranium, plutonium, and zirconium. Possible pool of plutonium at the floor of the pool created a prompt moderated criticality. May have been a “nuclear bomb” as a result of plutonium melting differentially from uranium (this would require a full meltdown). [1]
March 15 - Pressure in the pressure vessel falls throughout the night until nearly equalizing with the external atmosphere. [23]
March 16 - Midnight - pressure in the containment vessel surged.[23]
March 16 - White smoke.
March 20 - 22 - pressure in containment vessel rising on the 20th followed by Grey smoke on the 21st continuing through 22nd. It is believed this was caused by melted fuel rods dropping to the concrete bottom of the containment vessel through damaged piping, some of it used to gauge neutron levels. [23]
March 23 - black smoke.
April 21-23,25 - Increased heat event in spent fuel pool.[14]
April 11 - Coolant injection into reactor 3 interrupted for 50 minutes due to a loss of power. [17]
May 12 - TEPCO began pumping water from a new site into the reactor. engineers are concerned that sufficient water is not remaining in the pressure vessel because of the broken piping. [23]
May 15 - Injection of water and boric acid mixture commenced. [23]
May 22 - TEPCO officials confirm continued steam emissions from SFP. [26]
??? - Melt Through
??? - High core temperature and low pressure indicating an absence of water in containment vessel. [1]
??? - Main Steam Isolation Valve Leakage [1]
??? - Mark 1 containment vessel loses integrity and begins to release large amounts of radiation into the environment. [1]
??? - Failure of containment vent. Vents may not close properly. [1]
??? - “Fuel particulates may have been ejected from the pool..based on very high dose rate material that had to be bulldozed over between units 3 and 4.” [2]
??? - Concern of re-criticality. [2]
Unit 4
March 11 - Eyewitness account suggests explosion in supression chamber. [28]
March 15 - Evidence of fission products within SFP suggest a chemical reaction took place. Possible self sustaining chain reaction.[1] Possible criticality[12]
March 15 - Fire in SFP possibly volatilized plutonium, uranium, strontium. [1][11] deflagration results in heavy damage to the reactor building. [1] zirc hydrogen reaction occurred. All fission products can be volatilized with no containment. [2] “If any of the spent fuel rods in the pools did indeed catch fire, nuclear experts say, the high heat would loft the radiation in clouds that would spread the radioactivity.” [4] SFP core melt in fresh air - all fuel melted due to a crack in fuel pool leading to water leak. [3]
April 12 - Cooling efforts temporarily stopped in the SFP. temperatures and radiation readings spike.[13]
April 21-23,25 - Increased heat event in spent fuel pool.[14]
May 22 - Reactor 4 SFP is generating heat due to active fuel rods remaining within. [26]
May 22 - TEPCO officials confirm continued steam emissions from SFP. [26]
June 11 - Large Release of steam accompanied by bright light. Potential fission reaction.[34]
June 14 - Large Release of steam accompanied by bright light. Potential fission reaction.[33]
??? - “Fuel particulates may have been ejected from the pool..based on very high dose rate material that had to be bulldozed over between units 3 and 4.” [2]
??? - unshielded gamma radiation - sky shine. [1]
Unit 5
May 28 - At 21:14 a cooling pump at reactor five stops. At 08:12 the next day, work began on a spare pump, and cooling was restored at 12:49[18][19]
July 3 - 10AM. Workers discover a cracked and leaking cooling hose, which had been supplying coolant to the reactor. Cooling system is shut down to replace the faulty hose. [31]
Unit 6
May 18 - Over 6 feet of contaminated ground water seeps into turbine building. Poses risk to emergency power system. [25]
[1] Gundersen, Arnie fairewinds.com
[2] RST Assessment of Fukushima Daiichi Units 26 March 2011
[3] 3-2011 Areva Fukushima Report 7 April 2011
[4] “In Stricken Fuel-Cooling Pools, a Danger for the Longer Term”. New York Times. Retrieved 14 March 2011.
[5]Reactor Core Status of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Unit 1″. TEPCO. May 15 2011. Retrieved May 20 2011.
[6]Timeline: Japan power plant crisis”. BBC News. Retrieved 15 March 2011.
[7]press release 8″. TEPCO. 13 March 2011. Retrieved 13 March 2011.
[8]Justin McCurry (14 March 2011). “Explosion at Japanese nuclear plant”. The Guardian (London).
[9] Radiation shoots up at Fukushima nuke plant after blast heardKyodo News 15 March 2010
[10]Hiroko Tabuchi, Keith Bradsher, Matt Wald (14 March 2011).“Japan Faces Prospect of Nuclear Catastrophe as Workers Leave Plant”. The New York Times.
[11] “Container damaged, radiation leak feared at Fukushima No.2 reactor”. Kyodo News. 15 March 2011.
[12]Black, Richard (16 March 2011). “Japanese emperor ‘deeply worried’ BBC News”. BBC News. Retrieved 23 March 2011.
[13]Japan Plant Emits More Radiation After Cooling Lapse”. NTI. Retrieved 17 April 2011.
[14]STATEMENT ABOUT THE REACTOR BLUEPRINT AND TEPCO’S ACCUSATIONS House of Foust. Retrieved 31 May 2011.
[15]Radiation Expert: “Sr-90 and Uranium and Particulates Will Be Building Up in the USA and Europe … For Now I Think It Prudent To Stop Drinking Milk” Washington’s Blog. 24 April 2011
[16]“Unit 1 nuclear power plant Fukushima Radiation”. TEPCO. Retrieved 8 April 2011.
[17]Restoration work at Fukushima plant suffers setback in Monday quake”. Retrieved 11 April 2011.
[18]“Status of TEPCO’s Facilities and its services after the Tohoku-Chihou-Taiheiyou-Oki Earthquake(as of 4:00 PM, May 29)”. TEPCO. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 29 May 2011.
[19]“Earthquake News No. 96″. JAIF. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 29 May 2011.
[20]Hiroaki Koide of Kyoto University: “Melted Core Outside the Containment Vessel” 17 May 2011
[21]Fukushima Daiichi Diary: Other Problems 18 May 2011
[22]Tepco vents No. 2 reactor while U.S. surveys ocean 12 June 2011
[23]No. 2, No. 3 reactors remain volatile; meltdowns suspected 18 May 2011
[24]Failed venting tries linked to No. 2 damage 19 May 2011
[25]Reactor No. 6 now has over 6 feet of contaminated water in turbine building 18 May 2011
[26]TEPCO acknowledges ‘vapor’ is still being seen at Reactors No. 2, 3 and 4 spent fuel pools 22 May 2011
[27]TEPCO Now Says High Levels of Cesium Detected Above No1 Fukushima Reactor 25 May 2011
[28]Japan tsunami: Fukushima Fifty, the first interview 15 June 2011
[29]Radiation level in No. 1 reactor building up to 700 millisieverts. 9 May 2011
[30]Second Fukushima reactor open for repair. 20 June 2011
[31]Hose leaking water at Fukushima No.5 reactor 3 July 2011
[32]Water flow falls at No.1 reactor, but restored 4 July 2011
[33]Fukushima nuclear Cam 2011.06.14 00:00-01:00 / (Live Fukushima Nuclear Plant Cam) 14 June 2011
[34]Fukushima nuclear Cam 2011.06.11 03:00-04:00 / (Live Fukushima Nuclear Plant Cam) 11 June 2011
EPA -The EPA trickles out a few more data points across the country. From the EPA:
June 16th,
Today, EPA released the final results from the second round of drinking water samples, which were previously analyzed for iodine. Forty samples were analyzed. No radionuclides associated with the Japanese nuclear incident were detected.June 1, 2011
Today, EPA released new drinking water data. One sample detected very low levels of cesium-137. The level detected is far below a level of public health concern.May 24, 2011
Today, EPA released new data for drinking water, precipitation and milk. Results from two precipitation samples detected low levels of radioactive material consistent with estimated releases from the damaged nuclear reactors.
Remember on May 9th the EPA revealed that they would be scaling back monitoring efforts due to:
consistent decreases in radiation levels across the country associated with the Japanese nuclear incident, EPA will update the daily data summary page only when new data are posted.
Ok. Now lets take a look at some points of interest in the data, released by the EPA, since their statement on May 9th.
1. Precipitation data for Richmond CA as follows:
a. These are the last three data points, for the state of California, released by the EPA. The last collected on April 28th 2011.
b. Richmond CA is the only site in California for which the EPA has released any precipitation monitoring data.
c. The trendline through the data points indicates a decreasing concentration of Cesium-134. However, this evaluation is based on only 3 observations - with the third observation greater than the second. All it takes is one hypothetical observation (taken after 4/28/2011) of precipitation with levels of Cesium-134 greater than 5.2 pCi/l and we would have an increasing level of radioactive rainfall since April 22nd. A narrow precipice indeed.
2. Drinking Water measurements
a. Drinking water measurements throughout California remain sparse. The EPA has released only 4 data points throughout the state (2 in Richmond and 2 in Los Angeles).
b. The last readings taken in Los Angeles (on 4/12/2011 ) indicated elevated levels of Iodine-131 ( .18pCi/l ).
3. Sampling Dates
a. The EPA produces press releases revealing the publication of new data, but it’s important to note when and where the samples were taken. For example on June 16th the EPA says, “Forty samples [of drinking water] were analyzed. No radionuclides associated with the Japanese nuclear incident were detected”. More than half of the forty samples were collected on or before April 15th 2011 - they are now only being released 2 months later.
b. The forty samples, in the latest release, include only 4 data points in Pacific states, and Hawaii ( 2 in California, 1 in Hawaii, and 1 in Oregon). No data was release for Alaska or Washington. The missing data points may very well turn out to be more significant than the data publicly released.
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What is the most common misconception about the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Catastrophe as it relates to Americans?
I hear many Americans, and experts for that matter, contend that the level of radiation dosage we are receiving, from Fukushima NPP, is less than what we would receive from 1 or 2 X-ray examinations. This is true if we are taking into account only external dosage.
This is not true, however, if we are to take into account internal radiation dosage - the concentration of radioactive chemical elements inhaled or ingested into the body. Nuclear Power Plants, unlike medical X-ray devices, can emit into the atmosphere large concentrations of radionuclides - radioactive chemical elements resulting from nuclear fission. Theses radionuclides can include elements such as radioactive Cesium, Iodine, Xenon, Plutonium, Uranium, and Strontium - to name just a few. These elements can be inhaled or ingested if they find their way into our air, water, soil, or food supplies.
In contrast, Medical X-ray devices do not emit radioactive chemical elements by way of nuclear fission; instead most medical X-ray devices emit photons which pass through the skin and are absorbed by bones.
During an X-ray examination, there is no risk of consuming or inhaling radioactive chemical elements.
The radionuclides emitted by Fukushima NPP have now contaminated America’s air, water, soil, and food supply; and there is some risk of inhalation or ingestion of these particles.
So why all the fuss about X-rays, external radiation, bpm’s, and atmospheric levels of radiation? Because it’s simple and cost effective to measure external dose - many initial reports from government and international agencies are based on Geiger counter or air filter readings; and generalizing risks to health becomes more manageable when the effects are estimated based on atmospheric levels and external doses.
Measuring internal dosage is a major undertaking that would require urine or thyroid bioassays, or whole-body counts for a significant portion of the population.
Update(s)
If you’re concerned about radionuclide consumption, its effects on your body, and how to potentially detox your body I will point you toward the following article. Please keep in mind - I have not fully evaluated the following article and I am not endorsing any of its claims; I hope that if nothing else it will serve as a starting point for further research. I have not done much research on this topic - but I plan to in the near future. You can check back here for more links:
April 26th - May 9th
EPA - The EPA makes the surprising announcement that they will scale back radiation monitoring and testing of precipitation, milk, and drinking water. The EPA will resume non-emergency testing frequencies routinely reserved for periods when an nuclear emergency is not on-going.
From the EPA:
May 9th,
Due to the consistent decrease in radiation levels across the country associated with the Japanese nuclear incident, EPA will update the daily data summary page only when new data are posted.After a thorough data review showing declining radiation levels related to the Japanese nuclear incident, EPA has returned to the routine RadNet sampling and analysis process for precipitation, drinking water and milk.
EPA is evaluating the need to continue operating the additional air monitors deployed in response to the Japan nuclear incident. EPA will continue to analyze air filters and cartridges from all air monitors as they arrive at the laboratory and will post the data as available.
Interestingly enough the condition of the Fukushima Plant continues to lay on shaky ground. The NPP contiunes to spew radionuclides into the atmosphere, and EPA monitoring locations up and down the West Coast are showing the highest sustained levels of atmospheric radionuclides to date. Riverside, CA, for example, has registered maximum Beta radiation CPMs of over 100 in 5 of the last 7 days (May 2nd - 9).
Furthermore, The EPA has not posted any data, to their public RadNet sampling data webpage, since April 24th. The highest levels of radiation in rainwater in California were detected in Richmond on April 14th and 22nd.
Questions remain:
1. Where is the most recent RadNet data for concentrations of radionuclides in our air, rain, water, and milk supplies?
2. How can the EPA come to this conclusion when the Fukushima NPP continues to emit radiation into the atmosphere, air filters show elevated levels of atmospheric radionuclides, and plume projection models predict high concentrations of radionuclides in the atmosphere over the United States?
Fukushima NPP - An April 28th public press release by TEPCO included data of radioactive density of the sub-drain of Reactor 1. The data shows concentrations of I-131 orders of magnitude higher than the concentrations of C-137 and C-134. This is important as it indicates, according to analysis by the GLG group, nuclear fission may still be taking place despite the reactor being shutdown.
Live video monitoring footage showed a large amount of airborne particulates billowing up from the Fukushima NPP on the date of May 7th. Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), and the Japanese government gave a joint press conference on Sunday and explained that an unusual amount “substance” emitted from the NPP reactor on Saturday night was steam and did not warrant concern.
Live Video Footage of The Fukushima NPP from May 7th
TEPCO detects radiation levels as high as 700 millisieverts in reactor 1. Alternative forms of shielding will need to be developed before workers can enter the plant. TEPCO opened the doors linking the reactor building to its adjacent turbine building Sunday evening, releasing 5.0 x 10^8 becquerels into the atmosphere.
Dr. Saji former Secretariat of Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission, credits the current status of the accident to “luck”. Lucky because the wind has been blowing east away from the island for a significant portion of this disaster. “Lucky” for the Japanese perhaps. I pose the question: If these particles were blown east over the Pacific and North towards Europe where do the long-lived radionuclides end up?
An advisor to Japan’s government says poor decisions are to blame for the scale of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
April 11th - 25th
EPA - The EPA releases a considerable amount of data including concentrations and specific types of elements contaminating US air, water, and food supplies.
Particularly concerning are the concentrations of radioactive uranium detected by EPA air filters in Riverside, Anaheim, and San Francisco CA and in Hawaii. Because:
1. Uranium has been shown to be genotoxic - this means uranium can bind to DNA and cause mutations. If mutations occur in sperm or eggs genetic defects can be passed down to future progeny.
2. The presence of Uranium suggests the possibility that the Fukushima NPP has emitted not only gases and aerosols but also “hot particles” into the atmosphere. Hot particles occur when particles of Uranium melt together with other radionuclides. Hot particles pose a risk of a high dose of internal radiation even if an individual is in an area of low contamination. (Yablokov, 2009)
EPA Uranium and Plutonium Measurements
The EPA continues to trickle out data. Here are the first and only EPA measurements of radioactive strontium found in the milk supply of Hilo Hawaii.
The EPA has made a surprising change to the way they display RADNET air filter readings. The Gross count beta and gamma air monitoring graphs no longer show any specific data points but instead display a regression analysis of the data. I anticipate this is in response to the recent spikes in atmospheric radionuclides (Riverside, CA Gross Beta Air Monitoring Data, for example, had shown several days with peaks above 100 bpm). The Riverside graph reveals, none the less, an increasing level of atmospheric radionuclides over the West Coast of California. It is also interesting to note that, as of April 26th, the EPA is failing to report RADNET data for many stations up and down the West Coast of the United States.
The Fukushima NPP Reactor - Robots used to survey the Plant recorded very high levels of radiation. BBC did not publish the measurements; but did reveal that oxygen densities in both reactors 1 and 3 were 21%. Additionally, BBC commented that workers would exceed emergency safety measures after 41/2 hours inside the plant. Mum’s definitely the word but even the limited reports coming from Japan indicate the environment inside and around the plant is becoming too toxic for human activity.
Plant operators plan to reduce radiation leaks within 3 months and cool the reactors within 9 months - I anticipate this means, particularly for those of us on the West Coast, a continual bombardment of radionuclides well into the summer months. I recommend monitoring Plume data from ZAMG, UMD, and NILU to determine when peak concentrations of radiation are predicted to reach the West Coast. ZAMG, UMD, and NILU websites can be found in the tools and resources section at the end of this post.
April 6th - Fukushima NPP is still in a heap of trouble:
U.S. Sees Array of New Threats at Japan’s Nuclear Plant
Nitrogen pumped into nuclear reactor
Congressman Edward Markey: Japan No 2 core melted through reactor vessel
April 5th - One of the last EPA Radnet monitoring stations in Southern California (Riverside, CA) has been taken down after showing very large readings (100+ BPM) throughout the morning. Plume trajectories predicted West Coast landfall, of radioactive particles, today April 5th-7th.
UPDATE 12:34 PST: The monitor is now back up showing a reading of approx 30 bpm. San Bernardino and Las Vegas are still showing BPM of 130+. Radiationnetwork.com has taken down all of their Southern Californian monitors.
April 5th - Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) projects a large distribution of Xe-133 over most of the US with peak concentrations April 5th - 7th.
Special Forecast products for Fukushima produced by NILU-ATMOS
April 5th - Dr. Gerhard Wotawa of ZAMG ( Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics in Austria ) warns several locations in the Northern Hemisphere: “Diese Isotope werden auch weiterhin in der Arktis registriert, zum Beispiel in Resolute/Kanada und Spitsbergen/Norwegen. Jod-131 Werte größer als 1000 µBqm-3 werden auch nach wie vor in Teilen der USA registriert. In keinen der hier erwähnten Gebiete besteht Gefahr für die Gesundheit.”
Tranlsated: “These isotopes [Iodine-131 & Cesium-137] are still registered in the Arctic, for example, in Resolute, Canada, and Spitsbergen, Norway. Iodine-131 values greater than 1000 μBqm -3 are still in parts of the United States also registered. In any of the areas mentioned here, there is a risk to health.”
Current conditions after an accident in Fukushima
ZAMG role in monitoring Fukushima: “Today the first CTBTO radionuclide analysis arrived at the ZAMG, in its role as a national data center in Austria for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). It turns out to be important as the data of the CTBTO International Monitoring System for civilian applications”.
CTBTO monitoring network first measure radioactivity on Japan / correction
April 5th - The EPA publishes data containing the results of radiation monitoring in milk, drinking water, and rain water. Accompanying the data was the obligatory statement, “The detections in air, precipitation, and milk were expected, and the levels detected have been far below levels of public-health concern”. Trace amounts of radiation “about 0.2 picocuries per liter [Iodine 131] in each case” were detected in Boise, Idaho and Richland, Washington.
Noticeably missing from the report were any data-points in California. Additionally, the data-points provided by the EPA are few and far between. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Nuclear Radiation falls out in a splotched and uneven distribution. Monitoring is going to be necessary at many points up and down the West Coast (and across the World for that matter).
EPA STATEMENT: Update on Ongoing Monitoring
April 3rd - ZAMG publishes more data containing atmospheric Iodine 131 readings taken from CTBTO monitoring stations around the world. Hawaii shows highest readings to-date.
Data : here
Additionally, ZAMG publishes their first projection of iodine 131 fallout to the ground:
Data: Here
Its important to note that the ZAMG fallout prediction does not extend past Longitude 160° East - Honolulu, Hawaii is located 157° West. We also have atmospheric Iodine 131 readings from CTBTO stations located in Honolulu and Sacramento. Provided we would be taking into account some assumptions - we can start to predict, using the above data, what the fallout levels will look like over Hawaii and California.
April 3rd -The University of Maryland projects, using Hysplit Trajectories, the paths of radioactive plumes emanating from the Fukushima Plant. Currently there is a large plume of low lying radionuclides over the Pacific and moving east towards the West Coasts of Canada and the US.
PLEASE NOTE: Due to unpredictable environmental factors plume trajectories are updated daily and can change.
UPDATE: Currently projections are very unpredictable with possible entry points in California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and the West Coast of Canada.
North American Landfall estimates: April 4th-5th
[monitor this link for up-to-date plume trajectories]:
Here
[Monitor the EPA real-time Radnet monitoring site for unusual fluctuations in radiations levels:]
Here
April 1st - Milk in San Luis Obispo county tests positive for Iodine 131. Story
March 31st - the FDA issues a press statement indicating Radiation has been found in Milk samples from Spokane, Washington ( How about some readings throughout California? How about publishing measurements of cesium 137, strontium 90, or plutonium 239/238 to accompany tests for iodine-131? Where are the facts? where is the data?)
ZAMG and UMD dispersion models predict a higher concentration of radionuclides have passed(and potentially fallen out) over California than Washington. The literature published by Dr. Yablokov suggests nuclear fallout is unevenly distributed - this indicates, to me anyways, that readings will be required across the entire state.
U.S. Detects Trace Amounts of Radiation in Milk
Deposition of fallout cesium 137 on forage and transfer to milk
Its no secret ingested or inhaled radionuclides have long term health consequences (There exists an abundance of published research papers on this topic, here are just a few to give you an idea):
Hepatic cholesterol metabolism following a chronic ingestion of cesium-137
Chronic contamination with 137cesium in rat: effect on liver cholesterol metabolism
And just FYI:
March 30th - Required reading for anybody attempting to make reasonable inferences as to the environmental and health impacts Fukushima will have on California and beyond:
(FREE via Google Books) Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment
March 30th - TEPCO announces they have lost full control of reactors 1-4. Plans to decommission the plants are under way. Japanese experts are considering covering the Fukushima Plants with a special material to attempt to stem the spread of radioactive substances. (Really? Only now measures are being taken to control the spread of radionuclides - after 3 weeks of contaminating the Northern Hemisphere with radioactive garbage? If there were other means to control the Fukushima plants why has it taken so long?)
March 28th ZAMG publishes data, containing atmospheric Iodine-131 readings, collected at radiation monitoring stations from around the world - including one station in Sacramento CA. ZMAG uses the data to validate its dispersion models. Three questions remain -
1. Are the readings taken in Sacramento assumed to be homogeneous across the entire state? (According to Dr. Yablokov, the areas around Chernobyl showed splotched and irregular distributions of radioactive contaminants - ZAMG dispersion models support this)
2. What other types of radionuclides reached the US and what were their densities?
3. Are these levels high enough to contaminate food and water supplies in the US?
Data: Here
Dispersion models: Here
March 25th Recommended Viewing: Esteemed nuclear scientist Dr. Alexey Yablokov, an expert on the long term health consequences of the Chernobyl failure and a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, comments Via a C-SPAN press conference, on the effects the Fukushima failure will have on long term world health; and on the consequences of Mox fuel emission by the Fukushima Reactor 3.http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/Chernob
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Possibly the largest natural and man-made disaster continues to unfold 2 weeks after a 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of Japan; Oddly, most Californians I speak to (and Americans as a whole for that matter) seem apathetic to the potential dangers posed, not only to Japan, but to America and the World as a whole.
It’s understandable, a quick glance at the major US papers reveal Libya and Elizabeth Taylor dominating the headlines - with the Japanese crisis little more than a sidebar blurb.
I’ve tried to omit as much of my own opinion as possible from the following document. I have a healthy skepticism of both Government data and “Official Government Positions” on this issue and I anticipate that will show through in my writing. I assembled this document with the intent of providing sources of information and tools so that you can analyze and track for yourself - the threat that the Japanese Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant poses to Japan, California, the United States, and the World.
I’ve compiled a list of tools and resources at the bottom of this document.
The Cover Up
The Japanese Government continues to, and has since the beginning of the Fukushima Nuclear Plant failure, misrepresent and distort facts that would give us a more clear understanding of the severity of the disaster:
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-japan-quake-secrecy-20110325,0,48349.story?track=rss
The cover up has become so involved that Greenpeace has taken matters into their own hands by sending a team of experts (as of March 24th ) to Japan to record the true level of radioactive particles emitted, by the Fukushima Plant, into the atmosphere and water supply :
*Bookmark this page. Greenpeace should update their findings here; which should provide some of the most unbiased radiation readings from the Japanese Power Plant to date.
Via Greenpeace.org:
“By providing honest, transparent and independent analysis of the threats to public health, we aim to provide an alternative to the often contradictory information released by nuclear regulators in the two weeks since the Fukushima disaster began unfolding.”
The truth of the matter is the Fukushima Nuclear Plant is in worse condition now (March 26th) than could be anticipated:
And it continues to spew contaminates into the atmosphere:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/aktuell/index.php?seite=1&artikel=ZAMG_2011-03-25GMT15:41
And here is video footage from March 24th of steam rising from reactors 1,2,3, and 4:
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/24_18.html
Leaving Chernobyl in the dust
We can be certain that the Fukushima plant is emitting radioactive iodine(iodine-131) and caesium(caesium-137) at unprecedented levels. Japanese readings at the Takashi Radiation Monitoring station suggest the Fukushima plant is emitting radioactive iodine-131 at 1.2 to 1.3 × 10^17 becquerels per day and caesium-137 at a rate of between 5 x 10^15 and 5×10^16 becquerels per day. Calculated across the full accident scenario, one would assume a similar source term of both isotopes as during the accident in Chernobyl.
This recent Greenpeace report confirms the radiation levels suggested by Japanese metering stations. The report indicates the Fukushima Plant has emitted enough radiation to rank at Level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). In fact, enough radionuclides have been emitted to equate to 3 INES 7 incidents. To put this into perspective, the Chernobyl meltdown rates as a Rank 7 on the INES scale. The Three Mile Island disaster ranks as an INES 5.
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/Fukushima–INES-scale-rating/
Chernobyl spewed 1.76 × 10^18 becquerels of iodine-131 over the span of 10 days, which amounts to only 50 per cent more per day than has been calculated for Fukushima Daiichi. Additionally, Chernobyl emitted 8.5 × 10^16 in total caesium-137.
The kicker? Fukushima, at 1760 metric tons of fresh and used nuclear fuel, has 10 times the amount of fuel as Chernobyl (50 times more fuel than Three Mile Island). The Plant is still emitting radiation - We can’t be sure how much longer it will continue to do so.
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/03/how-much-fuel-is-at-risk-at-fukushima.html?rss=1
Side note: Reactor 3 of the Fukushima power plant uses Mox Plutonium Fuel. Rarely is this mentioned in any news or scientific publication. Does anyone know the ramifications of a meltdown in Reactor 3?
http://www.infowars.com/japanese-authorities-admit-deadly-mox-plutonium-reactor-is-leaking/
Update: Dr. Alexey Yablokov has commented on the dangers of Mox Fuel emission during a C-SPAN press conference. According to Dr. Yablokov the World has never seen a Mox Fuel failure before, and if plutonium has been released by Reactor 3, the contaminated area will never be habitable again:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/Chernob
California Here We Come
Did these radioactive particles reach the US? You’re damn right they did - in a big way. Sacramento CA showed similar readings to those taken at the Takashi Radiation Monitoring station. For the first two days after the accident, the wind blew east from Fukushima towards monitoring stations on the US west coast - The plume of radiation was moving fast; and quickly swept over the West Coast and mainland of the United States. Eventually making its way into Europe.
As of the 24th giant plumes of radiation are pummeling the West Coasts of the United States and Mexico.
An alarming map showing the plume on March 24th:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/display.php?imgPath=/pict/aktuell/20110325_Reanalyse-I131-Bild4_gr.jpg&imgTitle=Radioaktivit%26auml%3Bt+von+Fukushima+12+Tage+nach+Beginn+des+Unfalles%3A+Extrem+verd%26uuml%3Bnnte+Radioaktivit%26auml%3Bt+%26uuml%3Bber+Europa&imgSource=%26copy%3B+ZAMG&imgWidth=842&imgHeight=596
Today the 26th of March, according to the Austrian Meteorological Society, the wind has shifted and is blowing east, and hard, from Japan - bringing with it another wave of radioactive debris. North-westerly winds are anticipated to continue through the 27th. Looking outside its been a sullen day in Southern California with dark ominous clouds overhead and very rarely a glimpse of sunlight.
hint: Google Chrome will translate this for you:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/docs/aktuell/Japan2011-03-25_1600_E_1.pdf
Is the US in Danger?
According the the EPA (environmental protection agency) we are not necessarily in any immediate threat from radiation exposure. Inhalation or consumption of radioactive particles is another hotly contested issue.
http://www.ecoshock.info/2011/03/nuclear-nightmare-continues.html
Update: Dr. Alexey Yablokov has commented on the potential long term health ramifications of the Fukushima Plant failure. He warns of situations developing that are similar to those experienced during Chernobyl; namely potential importation, into the United States, of contaminated food. What concerns me is he specifically identifies food products from countries not located close to the Chernobyl disaster, products like herrings from Norway, cheese from Germany, figs from Turkey. Is it possible the US food supply could be contaminated by the Fukushima Plant failure? I don’t know - and Dr. Yablokov didn’t say.
I believe if the situation in Japan continues to digress, and they lose full control of reactors 1,2,3 or 4 the EPA’s stance could change. Why? We’ve already experienced beta radiation levels, here in the US, that indicate abnormal levels - which under normal circumstances would trigger a radiation warning.
Radiation levels collected by the EPA over Los Angeles. Note: levels of beta radiation over 100 cpm are considered abnormal:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-losangeles-bg.html
Under normal circumstances? What in the hell do you mean? The EPA’s radiation data is unreliable. We cannot make any reasonable inferences from the data their Radnet monitors have collected since the Fukushima disaster. It’s is important to understand that the EPA’s radiation monitoring system on the West Coast is malfunctioning and may not be able to provide ample warning of any impending radiation danger. 8 of the 18 EPA’s Radnet monitors along the West Coast have been taken offline because they are showing irregular radiation readings.
http://www.latimes.com/health/la-me-radiation-california-20110325,0,3305630.story
Here is an example of radiation readings taken from a Radnet monitor in Fresno CA:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-fresno-bg.html
And one from Bakersfield:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-bakersfield-bg.html
If these readings were taken literally the implications are not good. As you can see both monitors were taken offline sometime around March 18th.
if you are confused about cpm’s and radiation readings this resource does a good job of spelling it out:
http://modernsurvivalblog.com/nuclear/radiation-geiger-counter-the-radiation-network/
Here is the map of all of the Radnet sensors across the US:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-data-map.html
I’ve set up an account with the EPA so that I can monitor the Radnet system radiation readings in real time. I’ll be following these closely in coming days. I suggest you do the same:
https://cdx.epa.gov/ssl/cdx/regwarning.asp?Referer=registration
A slightly more transparent, but less robust, monitoring network is the Radiation Network. I’ll be following them as well:
http://www.radiationnetwork.com/
Long term radiation contamination prospects in the US and beyond
Scientist can not agree on the impact small amounts of radiation have on a contaminated environment. The death toll and environmental impact of Chernobyl is still debated to this day - with figures ranging from 4,000 to half a million deaths caused by the meltdown:http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/10/chernobyl-nuclear-deaths-cancers-dispute
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/features/chernobyl-deaths-180406/
Dr Seth Tuler PhD, Research Fellow at the Social and Environmental Research Institute in Greenfield MA, explains the issue aptly,
“The science that informs much of our understanding of radiation effects on health is from studies of survivors of the US nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. These like many other studies are often in the form of epidemiological studies of low dose radiation exposure. For low doses, these studies are often inconclusive and it is difficult or impossible to show links of causation with certainty. Studies can be inconclusive when there is poor information about the actual exposures or who was exposed (both problems tend to cause underestimations of the real effect).”
In essence the crux of the debate is that absence of an observed effect is not proof of no effect.
http://www.psr.org/resources/health-risks-releases-radioactivity.pdf
Tools and Resources
EPA Radnet Login: https://cdx.epa.gov/ssl/cdx/login.asp
EPA Japan 2011 homepage: http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/index.html
EPA Public Realtime Map view: https://cdxnode64.epa.gov/radnet-public/showMap.do
Radiation Network radiation monitoring: http://www.radiationnetwork.com/
Greenpeace homepage: http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/
Greenpeace Radiation Tracking: http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/nuclear/safety/accidents/Fukushima-nuclear-disaster/Radiation-field-team/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=webpage&utm_term=032511_1100&utm_campaign=nuclear
Radiation Levels and Measurements: http://modernsurvivalblog.com/nuclear/radiation-geiger-counter-the-radiation-network/
Austrian Meteorological Society (these guys produce, in my opinion, some of the most transparent coverage of the Fukushima Crisis). Use Google Chrome to translate:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/
IAEA (The International Atomic Energy Agency) : http://www.slideshare.net/iaea
Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment by Dr. Alexey Yablokov(free Via Google Books): Here
Plume Dispersion Models (via The University of Maryland): http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~tcanty/hysplit/
Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) : http://transport.nilu.no/products/fukushima
TEPCO public press releases: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/index-e.html
Google Chrome: http://www.google.com/chrome
If I have missed any essential tools or resources please leave me a comment and I will update my list.
Special Thanks to:
http://washingtonsblog.com/
For this write-up:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/03/no-amount-of-radiation-released-from.html
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Past Updates
April 4th - The Fukushima Plant dumps 11,500 tons of radioactive water into the ocean. 10,000 tons came from a communal storage facility near the number 4 reactor and another 1,500 tons came from a facility near reactor 5,6. As, usual the Government has said “There is no immediate concern for danger.” (Does this mean we should have concern for the mid and long range environmental and World health impacts? I think so.)
Radioactive water from Japanese nuclear plant dumped into sea
April 1st - The EPA has released a press statement indicating that radiation, below levels of concern, has reached the US. They cite filter analysis from 12 RadNet filters across the US.Its important to note that the RadNet filters are little more than Geiger counters which measure levels of alpha, beta, and gamma radiation in our atmosphere. These readings tell us nothing of the type or concentrations of the radionuclides that have fallen out over California and the US. We will need to wait for the readings from the CTBTO monitoring stations, before we have accurate measures of the types and concentrations of radionuclides - which as far as I know have not been published (other than the few reports from the CTBTO released to the public by ZAMG as cited in the March 28th update). Soil, water, and milk analysis from the FDA, will give us the most accurate indication of fallout levels on land and in our water - but they’ve only published one such report cited in the March 31st update.
March 28th:Fukushima Reactor 3 is emitting steam into the atmosphere. Radiation has swept across the Northern Hemisphere and is now detected in South Korea (use Google Chrome to translate):
March 27th: Japanese workers pulled out of reactor, as radiation soars to 10 million times the normal level:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12872707
And shortly after the Japanese report has been rescinded, citing a mistake in reporting:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12875327
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Beau Bergquist
G`mail: beau dot adtorrent
- Filed under: Fukushima, Japan 2011, Radiation Risk US
- Date: Mar 26,2011
The King of Content
TV mogul William S. Paley made a fortune as a purveyor of content. He understood one simple idea: people love to watch TV. His business model thrived because advertisers were willing to pay for attention and his television network provided tons of it. Paley capitalized on the abundance of the 1950s: attention, spare time, and trust. Specifically, people watched a lot of television in their spare time. They payed attention to television advertisements; and they trusted most of what the advertisers were pushing them.
Times have changed. What was abundant last century is now scarce; and what was once scarce is now abundant. But We can learn from William S. Paley; not by duplicating what he has done but by thinking like him. Paley would understand the importance of capitalizing on the abundances of today’s marketplace.
The End of An Era
We’re hearing a lot about push vs. pull marketing. Mass Marketing defined an era of push marketing. Advertisers pushed ads in front of as many eyeballs as they could - as many times as their budget allowed. In the mass marketing era television reigned supreme because attention could be bought very inexpensively. Now, because the supply and demand has shifted, mass media is dying.
Want My Attention? You Have to Earn it.
The scarcities of the William S. Paleys’ era are now incredibly abundant. Television airtime isn’t scarce any longer; The diminished role of the FCC means it has a more difficult time creating artificial scarcity. In the early years of television there were just three channels; now there are hundreds.
Communication is abundant: We don’t have to rely on Television and Radio for our information. Now with the Internet and Search Engines we can get the information we want right when we want it.
In contrast, what was abundant then is now very scarce.
Spare time is scarce. We don’t have spare time any more because we spend our time: Searching the Internet, watching movies we’ve downloaded, TIVOing, arranging play lists, on the phone, buying stuff online - the list goes on.
Our attention is scarce. We don’t watch television advertisements because our time is too valuable. If we want to learn about a new product or service we look it up ourselves. If you want our attention you’ll have to wait for us to come looking for you.
No Barriers To Entry
Television Network moguls built empires by producing content. We see successful Internet businesses and non-profits follow the same path: Amazons users develop tens of thousands of online book and product reviews; AOL and Weblogs Inc. form a content network that produces blog posts for several top 100 blogs; OpenCongress.org brings together real government data with blog posts and comments to give users a better look at what’s happening in the US government.
Unlike with television, magazines, and radio - the Internet has no barriers to entry; you can join the party anytime. Just keep in mind a simple goal: produce content that people will be interested in - content that tells a story.
Permission Marketing
The Internet, more specifically Social Media and Search engines, enables consumers to retrieve the information they want when they want it. They don’t pay attention to advertisements anymore because they don’t have the time; and now they have the power to avoid them. They have been over-exposed to a marketplace flooded with marketing messages commanding their attention; and ultimately they just don’t care what advertisers have to say. It’s more reliable and more fun to learn from each other than it is to watch television commercials.
So what does this mean for marketers? To be successful you now have to build direct personal relationships with millions of people; sharing your message only with the people who want to hear it. Consumers only listen to messages from sources that have earned their attention and their trust. This type of communication is very difficult if not impossible with traditional marketing but Social Media makes it not only feasible but also easy.
A Glowing Umbrella
They key is delivering relevant content to people, who want it, when they want it. Visualize, for a moment, an umbrella with a glowing handle. This umbrella is just like your ordinary umbrella except it contains a processor, a wi-fi card, and its translucent handle is embedded with LEDs. While you’re brushing your teeth in the morning, the umbrella is accessing the web and downloading the weather forecast. If rain is on the horizon the handle lights up and you know to reach for it as you make your way out of the house. The umbrella improves your efficiency (and your way of life) by providing you with the information you need when you need it. Soon you learn to trust and rely on the umbrella for that information every morning.
Something For Nothing
You build trust with consumers - and influence their decision making processes - by providing them with valuable information that demonstrates your company is knowledgeable. Take a look at the ideas section of the Razorfish website. Here they offer several free high quality research reports. The reports are current, knowledgeable, and give the reader an insight into the culture of the company. Razorfish could charge thousands of dollars for access to these reports, they are that good; but they give them away for free. They do this because the reports establish Razorfish as a thought leader in their marketplace; and by giving the reports away the company develops meaningful relationships with anybody who takes the time to read them.
Information on Demand
By dicing up the web into accessible units Google makes it practical to access the information we want right when we want it. When I perform a search I am telling Google what topic I am currently interested in learning about. I know Google is listening because I get relevant results both organically and in the paid search section.
By sharing this information with marketers Adwords, Google’s paid search program, enables the delivery of advertisements directly to consumers who are interested in receiving them.
If Adwords is a marketers dream then organic results is her nirvana. What do organic results have that paid listings don’t?
Similar to paid listings, organic results deliver relevant content directly to users who are interested in receiving the information.
You don’t have to pay to be there.
You build real internet equity.
You have automatically established some degree of trust with your target consumer.
Trust Engine
People trust Google and they also trust the results they receive from a Google search. Google shows some amount of trust in the websites that make up their organic search results - They show a whole lot of trust in the websites that make up the top 10 results for any search. If Google trusts your website, the people that use Google will trust your website also.
An AdTorrent Example: SamsungTouchScreen.com
AdTorrent uses these same principles when we build a blog. More specifically our blogs contain insightful, current, and relevant content with sharp focus on a specific niche market (usually we target just one keyword). Ultimately our goal is to reach number 1 in the organic Google (and other search engines) search results for each of our blogs. In most cases we achieve this because we provide the information web searchers want - when they want it.
A good example is the Adtorrent blog samsungtouchscreen.com. The Samsung Touch Screen blog is full of blog posts, images, and videos on all of the new (you guessed it) Samsung touch screen cellular phones hitting the market. Samsungtouchscreen.com rocketed to number 1 in the Google organic search results partly because it was ahead of its time (it was created just before the touch screen cell phone craze hit full stride); but mostly it succeeds because it provides relevant, knowledgeable information on a specific topic. Adtorrent has produced identical results for LG, Nokia, HTC, Sony Ericsson, and Motorola brand cell phones.
The sky really is the limit with this method. The Internet can never have enough quality content.
- Filed under: Marketing
- Date: Jun 30,2009
From Pavement to Pixels
Websites, blogs, Wikis, Social Profiles develop equity similarly to commercial real estate. Successful commercial real estate development follows a formula: First, you purchase some commercially zoned land, preferably on a busy street, in a bustling part of town. You develop the land by laying a foundation, erecting store fronts and putting down asphalt for parking. Shortly thereafter, your new development attracts some long term tenants, like a 7-Eleven or an In-n-out, who bring in significant consumer traffic and transform your land into valuable commercial property.
In addition, maybe you put up a billboard over the busy street and collect some advertising revenue. Over time the land under your store fronts builds real estate equity. You can leverage this equity to buy more land, on a busy street, in another bustling part of town.
Internet properties, like blogs, can develop equity also. You purchase a domain name, preferably one that clearly describes the intentions of your blog. Next, You develop your blog with content like blog posts, images, or video. With each published blog post you announce your presence to the world by pinging blog search engines. Shortly, the search engines will send over spiders that will index your site and add your blog posts to search engine listings. Over time the domain name associated with your blog builds reputation, with readers and search engines, as your blog posts move up the organic search listings.
Building Internet Equity
You’re building equity now because your new web property is attracting natural web traffic in addition to gaining rank, reputation, and trust with the search engines. You can leverage Internet equity in a myriad of ways: collect some ad revenue by putting up banners, promote other web properties you own through the use of back-links from your blog posts, Communicate your ideas and goals to your readers, or describe and discuss your newest products and services. The opportunities are endless. Just like with real estate the sooner you get in and the longer you are around the more equity you build.
Temporary Solutions to Permanent Problems
I view purchasing banner ads, pop-up ads, or paid search listings the same way I view renting space on a billboard or leasing a storefront in a busy commercial development. It’s a temporary solution to a long term challenge. You don’t need the billboard or the storefront; you need the land under them. You can do anything you want with that land if you own it; and you can leverage the equity later to create more opportunities.
You shouldn’t focus on banner ads, pop-ups, sponsored blog posts, or paid search listings. Paid for blog posts can look contrived; banner ads and pop-ups aren’t effective anymore because people ignore them. Paid search listings are effective but they are expensive and people don’t trust them like they trust organic results. The value lies in the web property that hosts the banner ad, or the pop-up, or the paid search listing.
Organic Search Engine Placement is Internet Equity
What is real internet equity and why is it valuable? There are several forms of equity but the type we focus on here, at Adtorrent is organic search engine placement. More specifically, if your blog is number one in a Google search result you’re going to receive a whole lot of targeted traffic.
You can leverage this traffic, the same way you leverage real estate equity, to create opportunities.
People trust Google’s natural search results; if your blog posts rank well in the natural results people are going to visit your site with some amount of inherit trust. Over time trust nutures the reputation you build with your readers and the search engines. Your blog’s pagerank increases and you move up the orgainc search results. You’ve gained equity because now there is value, built up in this website, where before there was little or none.
In Google We Trust
The key here is trust. Increasingly, your online reputation precedes you, like it always has in the offline world. Its easy to trust somebody with a sparkling reputation. Google shows a great deal of trust in websites that make up their top 10 or 20 organic search results. Googles’ livelihood depends on the quality of their first few search result listings. So it makes sense that only websites with a great reputation top the organic results. We trust Google because they are excellent at what they do. The websites that rank highly in Google maintain a great reputation because Google trusts them - and we trust Google.
There are two ways to build your reputation online: You broadcast your voice throughout the Internet on your blog, with your tweets, or on your facebook page. If you remain transparent and provide the thoughtful information your peers are looking for then you can depend on word-of-mouth build your reputation. Or, you consistently rank highly in organic search listings. Think of moving up the natural search results like building a friendship with the Google. Friendships are predicated on trust and honesty. As you maintain this trust over time your reputation grows. New blogs start off with a small amount of trust with Search Engines - they like to give everyone a chance. You can capitalize on this goodwill.
SEO Zen
A blogging initiative should be the focus of every complete marketing effort. At Adtorrent achieving the number one spot in the Google natural search engines remains our goal for each blog we produce. Blogs are perfectly suited to maintain top search engine placement for several reasons. Their simplistic, stripped down design makes them easy to crawl and index by search engine spider bots.
Blogs are full of links. You can tell the search engines to revisit and re-index after each new post, update, or comment. Most importantly - and this is where Adtorrent specializes - blogs are full of content. We produce fresh, insightful content; and this appeals to the core mission of Search Engines which is to provide recent, relevant, and reliable information to the web searchers who want it - when they want it.
- Filed under: Internet Equity
- Date: Jun 30,2009
Traditional businesses are over matched by the speed and effectiveness of Social Media communications.
For centuries, business marketing models have relied on slow unpredictable communications to reach masses of consumers in hopes of converting 1-2% into customers. We can’t blame you – you build your organization around the marketing tools you can use most effectively. You make what you can sell; and you sell what you can market.
Traditional business worked by making average products for average people. We produced in bulk then inserted our commercials in front of as many eyeballs as possible. TV was godly because we could reach masses of people quickly and cheaply.
This model succeeded because people were glued to the television, there was a stockpile of attention, and consumers had few alternatives. Consumers made purchases because they remembered our commercials when reaching for our product, on the shelf, at the local retail store.
At the Speed of Ideas
Times have changed. People aren’t watching TV like they used to, and they don’t watch commercials at all. Mass marketing techniques aren’t very effective anymore because people are tired of being interrupted. Retail store shelf space isn’t quite what it used to be because the internet enables a nearly infinite inventory. Traditional business with its slow cycle times and expensive interrupt marketing rollouts don’t stand a chance against the speed and cost effectiveness of Social Media Marketing.
Today ideas move quickly. The distance an idea travels from the brain of the designer to the intended consumer is minimal – it’s just a blog post away. So Social Media allows (and requires) for rapid innovation; prototyping, failure, and adjustments - all streamlined to move at the speed of the marketplace.
How fast is Fast
Apple inc. found out the hard way just how fast ideas can move. Apple initially released it’s iPhone in an exclusive partnership with AT&T. Anybody could purchase the phone but only those of us with an AT&T wireless contract could use it to make calls. Many people were left standing on the outside, without an At&T contract, and wanted in. Ideas began to flow; designers, hackers, programmers, and bloggers began to communicate via Social Media. Blog posts, forums, and chat rooms were filled with ideas about how to bypass iPhone prevention measures.
Less than a month after its initial release a software solution had been released which bypassed the iPhone’s prevention measures – now anybody, in any part of the world, could use the iPhone. iPhone sales picked up (so did the stock price) as phones were shipped out to people in Europe, Asia, and South America.
AT&T was unhappy; their previously exclusive agreement with Apple wasn’t so exclusive any longer. Additionally, a secondary market emerged; hackers were now unlocking the iPhone, marking up the price, and reselling them on the open market. Apple had to do something. Apple designers and programmers started looking for answers and found them in the same places the hackers had shared their ideas – Blog posts and community forums.
One month later, Apple issued a warning that future iPhone software updates would render unlocked phones unusable. Hackers went back to work, and in less than a month the prevention measures had been bypassed again. Apple continued to fight back, releasing updated versions of the iPhone operating system which patched the holes the hackers used to penetrate their system; but in the end the hacking community prevailed. iPhones are being used all over the world.
We Get What We Want
Now, with the help of Social Media and Search Engines, consumers get what they want; they will retool, redesign, and reverse engineer your product until they get the result they require. Social Media spreads ideas quickly allowing consumers to communicate faster than ever; if your company is not prepared to move at the speed of Social Media you will be left in the dust. Consumers require extraordinary products; if you don’t make it for them they will make it themselves from your products or move on.
Every Industry is Affected
It’s not just the consumer electronics industry; all businesses are affected by Social Media. Your business is affected.
Media companies have to change. Advertising money is being shifted online – away from traditional media outlets. Bloggers are beating journalists to the scoops and headline news. Movies and TV shows, are being ripped off the internet, remixed, and redistributed on sites like Youtube.
Traditional retailers’ monopoly on distribution is over. People buy from each other on sites like eBay. Internet storefronts can have nearly infinite selection and inventory making retail shelf space less relevant. Price comparison happens instantly online, consumers share with each other where to find the best deals, and make purchasing decisions in an instant.
Social Media has redefined business hierarchy. The big and slow have been replaced by the small and fast. People read the news online, purchase goods, or find a date; and the traditional businesses that used to fill those roles have become less relevant.
Consumers are Talking: Your Brand Should Listen
Consumers thrive on word-of-mouth communication; and when they talk your brand or company could be affected. In fact, consumers are probably communicating their thoughts, about your brand image, on community forms and in blog posts; if they aren’t talking now they will be soon. In reality, customers see your brand for what it really is and not what your advertising campaign projects it to be.
Amazingly some businesses are thriving in Social Media, because they now focus on “for whom to produce” rather than “how much to produce”. This means making remarkable products for sophisticated consumers. You can listen to the conversations about your brand taking place in Social Media – the customers will tell you what they expect. After listening you should enter the conversation and bring your message directly to the people who want to hear it. Your brand should tell a story and if it’s worth talking about people will spread the word.
- Filed under: Social Media
- Date: Jun 30,2009
Blogs Are Here To Stay
Blogs prove to be more than a passing fad; they aren’t going away. They’ve become your most important tool for engaging the Social Media conversations surrounding your personal or corporate brands.
Blogs became a popular choice for communication because they satisfy one basic human need: our need for self-expression. Self-expression used to be private - you kept a personal journal, snapped photos at a family function, or painted a picture. Or, Self-expression was difficult – you struggled to sell and promote a book you wrote.
Self-Expression Made Easy
Now, as technology progresses, you can go public with your personal creations both quickly and easily; you can use lulu.com to publish your own hardbound books – they even provide you with an ISBN so people can order your book from anywhere in the world. In fact, that’s how blogs started; they were a public platform on which to publish your personal thoughts. Most early blogs were personal journals we published publicly to keep our friends and family updated on our current situation.
A Good Source For Reliable Information
Today blog posts read more like excerpts from a technical publication than a personal journal. Powerful voices have emerged, transforming the blogoshpere into a source of reliable information. Consumers seek out credible blog authors for purchasing guidance, trip advice, technical know-how, and news. New authors enter the conversation and contribute their own unique voice; as a result the quality of communication continues to improve.
Blogging remains a popular form of communication because we can distribute our thoughts, to millions of people, quickly and cheaply. You can garner a lot of attention by having your blog posts voted for on sites like Digg or Sphinn. You can publish your articles on sites like Helium or Gather or your videos on sites like Youtube. You can join blogging communities like MyBlogLog and share your blog posts with people who have similar interests. Even sites like Myspace and Facebook encourage users to update their profiles with a blog feed.
Conversation is a Two-Way Street
People can provide you with instantaneous feedback through your blog site. Now we see many companies using blogs to unveil new product concepts to their customer base. Customers can reply directly to the blog post providing the company with instant evaluations. Dell’s ideastorm takes this approach a step further by allowing users to vote on ideas to improve the companies’ products; Dell then implements the most popular ideas. The commentary on your blog post doesn’t stop at the feedback section of your blog site.
At their core blogs enable relationships. They promote feedback; there is a comment section at the bottom of just about every blog post, and they encourage citation. Blogging is about sharing ideas and one of the unwritten rules of blogging is: you can cite my idea, paraphrase it, remix it, or do just about what ever it is you want as long as you link back to me.
Links: The Currency of The Internet
Links are important. Interlinking creates relationships between blog authors and forms the blogoshpere - an intricate web of blog posts that connect to one antoher via HTML hyperlinks. It is a lot like “ill scratch your back if you scratch mine”. Blog authors will link to your blog post if they find it interesting; likewise they expect you to acknowledge their . The link is like a vote for your blog and the more votes your blog receives the larger your reputation becomes.
Listening 101
You can use blogs to bring your message to your target audience. First, you should listen to the conversations going on in Social Media. Read the blogs and message boards that talk about your company or target market. Think of it as joining a conversation between several people, you wouldn’t want to jump right in without first listening to the topic of discussion.
To help you locate the conversations worth listening to you can use Google Blog Search and Technorati – both are excellent free tools with powerful search options.
Locate the influential blog authors in your field and bookmark their RSS feeds (Google Reader is an excellent RSS aggregator); keep up with their daily topics of discussion even if they don’t directly pertain to your brand.
There are some professional brand monitoring services out there like Buzzlogic, Nielsen Buzzmetrics, and TNS Cymfony which do most of the heavy lifting for you and then aggregate the information they collect into a tidy user interface. Of course, these services can come with a hefty price tag. Several monitoring services also provide sentiment monitoring. This amazing bit of technology automatically discerns the disposition of a comment or forum post. A simple example: a forum post contains your brand name and “sucks” or “not good”; instead of scanning hundreds or thousands of comments for signs of unrest you are immediately alerted to this forum post for review.
Join The Party
Your next step is to start commenting on blogs, industry websites and forums. You expect feedback on your blog posts so you should start by contributing to the community. More importantly, authentic and insightful comments go a long way in building your reputation as an industry expert. Also, once you have your blog up, a well placed comment can guide new readers to that fresh blog post you just published.
After that, Start your own blog! Need Help? We can help.
- Filed under: Blogs, Social Media
- Date: Jun 30,2009
An informed, thoughtful, and effective blog is your gateway to Social Media Marketing. Consumers continue to rely less on major internet hubs and more on Social Media Communications for their information fix and purchasing guidance, as such, blogs have become an effective medium for delivering your Brand’s message directly to the people who will listen.
Many online consumers do listen. One in four online Americans are blog readers and even more Japanese adults read blogs at over fifty percent. The sheer number of people online utilizing Social Technologies has resulted in the Word-of-Mouth dynamic revving up to the point that traditional marketing techniques now have to change.
Traditional forms of communication ( TV, magazines ) are still useful for reaching large numbers of people and increasing brand awareness. But consumers already on the road to making a purchasing decision are no longer influenced by mass marketing techniques. Once people are aware of your product, a new dynamic kicks in: people learning from each other through online conversation. Good news - your blog can reach these consumers by contributing to the conversations that guide purchasing decisions. The best part? blogs integrate seamlessly into Social Network Applications and become the backbone of any Social Profile.
Let our experts utilize the tools provided by top Social Networking Services ( including Facebook, Digg, LinkedIn, Mybloglog and more ) to increase the buzz around your blog, and in turn drive more traffic to your blogsite, devlop greater natural organic search engine optimization and higher Google Pagerank, and establish lasting relationships with targeted consumers.
Here’s how we do it:
Please click here for more information on how you can get started.
- Filed under: Advertising, Blogs, Internet Equity, Marketing, Social Media, Social Networks
- Date: Apr 23,2008
Common Questions About Me:
Who Are You?
A link to my public Facebook page.
Facebook Page
Additionally, I have a BS in Biology from the California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo.
Why Are You Writing About Fukushima?
I believe I have an altruistic nature about me, and it makes me feel good to provide people with resources and tools that, I believe, will help them live longer, healthier lives.
I understand the Fukushima Failure is going to have long lasting effects on the Worlds Health and Environment.
As a Californian I understand the ramifications will probably be felt strongly here.
I want to live a long healthy life regardless of circumstances outside of my control.
What Are You Doing To Mitigate Radionuclide Consumption?
I'm no expert here. Lately, my time has been spread thin between following the Fukushima failure and researching means to best protect myself and my family. That being said here is a brief description of what I've done to minimize radionuclide consumption:
1. Head down to Whole Foods Market and pickup a couple bottles of broken cell wall chlorella, kelp extract and milk thistle extract. Make sure to follow the dose recommendations closely on the chlorella and kelp extracts. Too much kelp can lead to thyroid issues. Be sure to flush (see step 2) when taking these extracts.
2. Drink plenty of green tea. In essence your goal is to have your body "collect" heavy metals in the liver. You can't let toxins sit in your liver so you must flush them out with green tea and plenty of water. Natural laxatives such as fiber and coffee also help in this respect.
3. I make a seaweed soup out of the broth from my slow cooker: Head down to your local Korean market and pick up some dried seaweed (preferably kelp). Slow cook a brisket for 12-24 hours and simply drop the dried seaweed into the broth. Cook on low an additional 4 hours. leave the slow cooker on low: I let mine run for 24-48 hours.
4. Take a break. I will forgo algaes (ie. chlorella or kelp) 1-2 days a week; you can adjust this to your needs - a thorough flush is a good thing. Don't stop drinking water and teas - It's important to stay hydrated all of the time.
5. Fresh Vegetable Juice. I currently juice cilantro, tomato, carrot, celery, mustard green(or any leafy green is good), spinach, peppers, and pretty much any veggie in the fridge. The secret? a tiny dash of sea salt, fresh ground black pepper, and a dash of cayenne pepper - it tastes like a bloody mary to me!
6. I drink mostly distilled water (from just about anywhere) or artesian water imported from the southern hemisphere. As I understand your standard under-the-sink water filter is not sufficient to filter radionuclides.
7. I try not to consume dairy. Dr. Chris Busby has been quoted as recommending to those of us on the West Coast to avoid dairy products all together. I have to cheat because I love cheese and keifer.
8. There is much talk about edible clays as the most effective means to mitigate radionuclide consumption. I will look into this soon.
Who Are You?
A link to my public Facebook page.
Facebook Page
Additionally, I have a BS in Biology from the California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo.
Why Are You Writing About Fukushima?
I believe I have an altruistic nature about me, and it makes me feel good to provide people with resources and tools that, I believe, will help them live longer, healthier lives.
I understand the Fukushima Failure is going to have long lasting effects on the Worlds Health and Environment.
As a Californian I understand the ramifications will probably be felt strongly here.
I want to live a long healthy life regardless of circumstances outside of my control.
What Are You Doing To Mitigate Radionuclide Consumption?
I'm no expert here. Lately, my time has been spread thin between following the Fukushima failure and researching means to best protect myself and my family. That being said here is a brief description of what I've done to minimize radionuclide consumption:
1. Head down to Whole Foods Market and pickup a couple bottles of broken cell wall chlorella, kelp extract and milk thistle extract. Make sure to follow the dose recommendations closely on the chlorella and kelp extracts. Too much kelp can lead to thyroid issues. Be sure to flush (see step 2) when taking these extracts.
2. Drink plenty of green tea. In essence your goal is to have your body "collect" heavy metals in the liver. You can't let toxins sit in your liver so you must flush them out with green tea and plenty of water. Natural laxatives such as fiber and coffee also help in this respect.
3. I make a seaweed soup out of the broth from my slow cooker: Head down to your local Korean market and pick up some dried seaweed (preferably kelp). Slow cook a brisket for 12-24 hours and simply drop the dried seaweed into the broth. Cook on low an additional 4 hours. leave the slow cooker on low: I let mine run for 24-48 hours.
4. Take a break. I will forgo algaes (ie. chlorella or kelp) 1-2 days a week; you can adjust this to your needs - a thorough flush is a good thing. Don't stop drinking water and teas - It's important to stay hydrated all of the time.
5. Fresh Vegetable Juice. I currently juice cilantro, tomato, carrot, celery, mustard green(or any leafy green is good), spinach, peppers, and pretty much any veggie in the fridge. The secret? a tiny dash of sea salt, fresh ground black pepper, and a dash of cayenne pepper - it tastes like a bloody mary to me!
6. I drink mostly distilled water (from just about anywhere) or artesian water imported from the southern hemisphere. As I understand your standard under-the-sink water filter is not sufficient to filter radionuclides.
7. I try not to consume dairy. Dr. Chris Busby has been quoted as recommending to those of us on the West Coast to avoid dairy products all together. I have to cheat because I love cheese and keifer.
8. There is much talk about edible clays as the most effective means to mitigate radionuclide consumption. I will look into this soon.
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