Assess the Fukushima Danger for yourself. Tools and Resources for an informed decision.
- Filed under: Fukushima, Japan 2011, Radiation Risk US
- Date: Mar 26,2011
May 10th - June 15th
Meltdown and Melt-Through
Theories abound about the events at the Fukushima-Diachii Plant in the critical hours following the earthquake on March 11th [please see the timeline below for my most current reconstruction of events at the Fukushima NPP].
TEPCO and Government officials recognized,for sometime, the strong possibility of a meltdown at reactors 1, 2, and 3; but withheld the findings for several weeks before leaking it to the mainstream media. TEPCO released this information only recently in May 15th and 16th press releases.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576325110776621604.html
It was reported, on April 6th (and subsequently scraped from many news publications), that United States Congressman Edward Markey had knowledge of a meltdown in reactor 2.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/uk-japan-markey-idUKTRE73540Y20110406
Measurements and observations, taken by robots and brief human excursions into the plant, show a significant likelihood that fuel pellets, housed in the cores of reactor buildings 1,2, and 3, overheated and melted into molten beads. The molten fuel would have rolled off the reactor core and slumped to the base of the reactor pressure vessel. The concrete and steel, of the pressure vessel, provided little resistance against the molten fuel which continued melting a course through the base of the vessel, eventually breaching the structure and falling to the floor of the outer containment. The outer containment structure , itself constructed of concrete and steel, offered little impediment to the passage of the molten nuclear fuel - reports indicate the fuel melted through the floor of the containment and now exists in the earth beneath the reactor buildings.
Where does the fuel stop? Perhaps, as the movie title suggests, it falls through to China? More conservative estimates suggest the fuel may continue to melt through the gravel and clay until it reaches the water table - which would cool the fuel but also result in an explosion. The truth is I don’t know - nobody knows; This is an unprecedented event with an unpredictable outcome.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/08/fukushima-nuclear-plant-melt-through
Spent Fuel
The assessment and publication of the radioactive releases from the 4 spent fuel pools in reactors 1,2,3 and 4 remains a troubling task. At least one of these pools (the SFP in reactor 3) endured a detonation where radioactive contaminants were violently discharged into higher altitudes. The SFP at reactor 4 also endured a deflagration which left the building without a roof.
Spent fuel pools pose a significant danger because they both contain large amounts of spent nuclear fuel (which can be very radioactive and very hot), and they occupy an area outside of the containment vessel - with sparse shielding to the outside atmosphere (Well, more specifically, nothing remains separating the pool from the atmosphere when the roof and side walls of the building have been blown off - as is the case with reactor buildings 1,3, and 4). This sort of radioactive release is known as a “Core Melt on Fresh Air” because no barrier exist between the radioactive core and the environment.
Here is a good look at the design of the reactor buildings at the Fukushima Daiichi plant (navigate to page 4 of the pdf presentation):
http://www.fairewinds.com/content/3-2011-areva-fukushima-report
Through With Nuclear Winter and With Mr. Prime Minister
For several nations, In slightly more the 2 months time, The Fukushima NPP failure triggers a movement away from nuclear fission as a long term solution to power requirements. Japan, Switzerland, Germany, Italy, Thailand, Malaysia lead the pack as the early adopters of the “No Nuclear Plan”. Several of these nations put into motion plans to both phase-out nuclear power facilities and construct alternative power sources.
German officials agree to close all Nuclear Power Plants by 2021:
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1642266.php/German-coalition-agrees-to-close-nuclear-plants-by-2022
Swiss Cabinet decides to phase-out nuclear power by 2034:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/us-swiss-nuclear-idUSTRE74O4R220110525
Nulcear Power loses it’s appeal:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/nuclear-power-loses-appeal-japan
If you’re one to seek confirmation [of your theories], then the swift and decisive actions of these Nations might validate concerns that the Fukushima NPP failure both exposes the dark heart of homo sapien enterprise and represents a significant risk to all inhabitants of this planet. Of course, seeking only confirmations leads us to an incomplete assessment of the events we aim to explain. So I ask, “Does any observation, measurement, or publication show that the events, transpiring at the Fukushima NPP, pose no threat to the inhabitants of this planet”? If you can find one please leave a comment below.
We are in the fledgling stages of a worldwide experiment - with only a few pieces of observation and unvalidated (and in some cases corrupt) measurements to analyze.
In an interesting development (as I am writing this), which some may have seen coming, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has refused to relinquish his position after a motion of no-confidence from the Japanese parliament.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/video/2011-06/01/c_13905522.htm
Subsequently, The Japanese Government widens the evacuation zone around Fukushima, Halts cooling plans in the reactors with melted cores, prepares to develop an emergency cover that will protect the environment from the radioactive emissions of reactor 1, and revises unrealistic plans to bring the plant under control by the end of the year.
Widening Evacuation Zone
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/japan-widens-nuke-evacuation-zone-but-unlikely-to-punish-those-who-stay/story-e6frf7lf-1226056432864
Halt Cooling Plans
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13404548
Emergency Cover - The emergency cover for reactor 1 is set for completion by the end of June. it will consist of a large metal framework covered by a 1 millimeter thick sheet of polyester. The cover is designed to stem the flow of radioactive particles emitted via steam and smoke.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/15_07.html
http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2019247.ece
Plan revision
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tepco-cant-stabilize-reactors-by-year-end-report-2011-05-29
A Time and a Place for Everything
I suspect the widely accepted source terms, including 10^17bq/day and 5×10^16/day of Iodine-131 and Cesium-137 respectively, require reevaluation due to the likelihood that they were developed with incomplete information and inaccurate assumptions about the magnitude of the releases emanating from the Fukushima NPP.
Some current widely reported source terms include:
Dr. Chris Busby says, “this thing is still fissioning and releasing 10 to the fourteen becquerels a day. This will mean that Sr-90 [strontium 90] and Uranium and particulates will be building up in the USA and Europe.”[15]
Dr. Andreas Stohl and the NILU team use the following terms, “Currently we are using a daily releases distributed evenly of 0.1E18 Bq I-131, 0.1E17 Cs-137, and 0.1E19 Xe-133 per day”.
And Dr. Gerhard Wotowa of ZAMG, “These estimates are uncertainties, only on the scale just so. According to our estimates, we continue to iodine-131 emissions in the order of 10 17 Bq per day from, and of cesium-137 releases between 5 10^15 5 10^16 Bq per day.”
Additionally, NISA doubles the estimated total radiation release in the first 6 days from 370,000 terabecquerels to 770,000 terabecquerels.
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/index.html
http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/fuel-may-have-melted-through-three-japan-reactors-1
Timeline
The following attempts to reconstruct events occurring at the Fukushima NPP since March 11, 2011. Special attention has been made to document all potential releases - with the goal of developing an accurate source term assessment. It’s important to note the dates and times of the potential releases; but I don’t have dates for some events and times remain absent for most. Any help filling in the blanks is appreciated.
Unit 1
March 11 - persistent and prolonged steam emission. [1]
March 11 - Full Fuel melt within core. Containment breach. 16 hours after the earthquake. [5] By 6:50 a.m. March 12, the fuel was likely in a heap at the bottom of the vessel. [21] melted core of the Reactor 1 is not just out of the Reactor Pressure Vessel but out of the Containment Vessel. [20]
March 11 - Neutron beam detection, Chlorine-38,Tellurium-129,Iodine-131 & 132 suggest a possible inadvertent criticality (self sustaining nuclear chain reaction). [1]
March 11 - “The lack of cooling resulted in a zirc water reaction…The water reaction could have continued resulting in major source term release.” [2]
March 11 - “Fuel particulates may have been ejected from the pool…it is also possible material could have come from unit 1.” [2]
March 11 - Valves on the isolation condenser were closed and remained closed until battery power was restored. [21]
March 12 - Deflagration. Roof destroyed. Outer walls breached. [1]
March 12 - Several Steam vents. “To release pressure within reactor unit 1 at Fukushima I, steam is released out of the unit into the air. This steam contains water vapor, hydrogen, oxygen and some radioactive material, mostly tritium and nitrogen-16.”[6]
March 13 - Steam venting. addition of boric acid.[7]
April 7 - rise in temperature and increase in preassure. Spike in radiation in the drywell[16]
April 11 - Coolant injection into reactor 1 interrupted for 50 minutes due to a loss of power. [17]
May 9 - doors to the reactor building are opened releasing 5 x 10^8 becquerels of unfiltered radionactive substance into the atmosphere.[29]
May 22 - TEPCO begins to measure air above the reactor. 360 bq/m3 of cesium-134 were detected. [27]
July 4 - Volume of cooling water to the reactor falls. Decrease may be due to debris build-up within the hoses. No change in pressure or temperature reported. [32]
??? - Melt Through
??? - Main Steam Isolation Valve Leakage. [1]
??? - Mark 1 containment vessel loses integrity and begins to release large amounts of radiation into the environment. [1]
??? - Failure of containment vent. Vents may not close properly. [1]
??? - Concern of re-criticality. Possible periodic chain reactions. [1]
Unit 2
March 11 - persistent and prolonged steam emission. [1]
March 11 - Partial Fuel melt within containment vessel. [1] At 8:35 p.m. the final emergency cooling system at Reactor No. 2 appeared to have stopped. A NISA projection showed fuel in the reactor could start melting by around 1 a.m. [21]
March 11 - damage to SFP. [4]
March 12 - steam vent. [6]
March 15 - 6:15am radiation levels at the plant’s main gate skyrocketing to 11,930 microsieverts per hour at around 9 a.m. containment breach via internal hydrogen explosion in “pressure suppresion room”. [3][9][10][11][24]
March 15 - pressure in the pressure vessel began dropping precipitously during the night ,falling to almost the same level as the outside atmosphere. [23]
March 16 - Pressure in the surrounding containment vessel rose in the afternoon [23]
March 21 - white smoke and steam.
March 30 - April 12 - no pressure in containment vessel indicates a leak. Possibly no containment or reactor integrity. [1]
May 22 - TEPCO officials confirm continued steam emissions from SFP. [26]
June 12 - Filtered venting of radioactive steam inside the reactor building commences.[22]
June 19 - Doors to the reactor building will be opened to decrease the 99.9% humidity within the reactor. unknow amout of unfiltered radioactive subastance will be released into the atmoshpere.[30]
??? - Melt Through
??? - Main Steam Isolation Valve Leakage [1]
??? - Mark 1 containment vessel loses integrity and begins to release large amounts of radiation into the environment. [1]
??? - Failure of containment vent. Vents may not close properly. [1]
??? - Concern of re-criticality [1]
Unit 3
March 11 - persistent and prolonged steam emission. [1]
March 11 - Fuel melt within containment vessel. Containment breach. [1]
March 12 - Partial/Full Fuel melt.[5] Fuel in reactor three took about 60 hours to melt and that the reactor melted down 100 hours after the magnitude nine quake struck.
March 13 - steam venting. addition of boric acid.[7]
March 14 - Violent detonation is spent fuel pool. Roof and walls of reactor building are badly compromised.[8] Possible exothermic reaction inside the pool. High levels of Iodine-131 indicate a possible prompt moderated criticality within the SFP. Significant amount of fuel possibly volatilized. Explosion probably occurred at the bottom of the pool. Possible chemical reaction between uranium, plutonium, and zirconium. Possible pool of plutonium at the floor of the pool created a prompt moderated criticality. May have been a “nuclear bomb” as a result of plutonium melting differentially from uranium (this would require a full meltdown). [1]
March 15 - Pressure in the pressure vessel falls throughout the night until nearly equalizing with the external atmosphere. [23]
March 16 - Midnight - pressure in the containment vessel surged.[23]
March 16 - White smoke.
March 20 - 22 - pressure in containment vessel rising on the 20th followed by Grey smoke on the 21st continuing through 22nd. It is believed this was caused by melted fuel rods dropping to the concrete bottom of the containment vessel through damaged piping, some of it used to gauge neutron levels. [23]
March 23 - black smoke.
April 21-23,25 - Increased heat event in spent fuel pool.[14]
April 11 - Coolant injection into reactor 3 interrupted for 50 minutes due to a loss of power. [17]
May 12 - TEPCO began pumping water from a new site into the reactor. engineers are concerned that sufficient water is not remaining in the pressure vessel because of the broken piping. [23]
May 15 - Injection of water and boric acid mixture commenced. [23]
May 22 - TEPCO officials confirm continued steam emissions from SFP. [26]
??? - Melt Through
??? - High core temperature and low pressure indicating an absence of water in containment vessel. [1]
??? - Main Steam Isolation Valve Leakage [1]
??? - Mark 1 containment vessel loses integrity and begins to release large amounts of radiation into the environment. [1]
??? - Failure of containment vent. Vents may not close properly. [1]
??? - “Fuel particulates may have been ejected from the pool..based on very high dose rate material that had to be bulldozed over between units 3 and 4.” [2]
??? - Concern of re-criticality. [2]
Unit 4
March 11 - Eyewitness account suggests explosion in supression chamber. [28]
March 15 - Evidence of fission products within SFP suggest a chemical reaction took place. Possible self sustaining chain reaction.[1] Possible criticality[12]
March 15 - Fire in SFP possibly volatilized plutonium, uranium, strontium. [1][11] deflagration results in heavy damage to the reactor building. [1] zirc hydrogen reaction occurred. All fission products can be volatilized with no containment. [2] “If any of the spent fuel rods in the pools did indeed catch fire, nuclear experts say, the high heat would loft the radiation in clouds that would spread the radioactivity.” [4] SFP core melt in fresh air - all fuel melted due to a crack in fuel pool leading to water leak. [3]
April 12 - Cooling efforts temporarily stopped in the SFP. temperatures and radiation readings spike.[13]
April 21-23,25 - Increased heat event in spent fuel pool.[14]
May 22 - Reactor 4 SFP is generating heat due to active fuel rods remaining within. [26]
May 22 - TEPCO officials confirm continued steam emissions from SFP. [26]
June 11 - Large Release of steam accompanied by bright light. Potential fission reaction.[34]
June 14 - Large Release of steam accompanied by bright light. Potential fission reaction.[33]
??? - “Fuel particulates may have been ejected from the pool..based on very high dose rate material that had to be bulldozed over between units 3 and 4.” [2]
??? - unshielded gamma radiation - sky shine. [1]
Unit 5
May 28 - At 21:14 a cooling pump at reactor five stops. At 08:12 the next day, work began on a spare pump, and cooling was restored at 12:49[18][19]
July 3 - 10AM. Workers discover a cracked and leaking cooling hose, which had been supplying coolant to the reactor. Cooling system is shut down to replace the faulty hose. [31]
Unit 6
May 18 - Over 6 feet of contaminated ground water seeps into turbine building. Poses risk to emergency power system. [25]
[1] Gundersen, Arnie fairewinds.com
[2] RST Assessment of Fukushima Daiichi Units 26 March 2011
[3] 3-2011 Areva Fukushima Report 7 April 2011
[4] “In Stricken Fuel-Cooling Pools, a Danger for the Longer Term”. New York Times. Retrieved 14 March 2011.
[5]Reactor Core Status of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Unit 1″. TEPCO. May 15 2011. Retrieved May 20 2011.
[6]Timeline: Japan power plant crisis”. BBC News. Retrieved 15 March 2011.
[7]press release 8″. TEPCO. 13 March 2011. Retrieved 13 March 2011.
[8]Justin McCurry (14 March 2011). “Explosion at Japanese nuclear plant”. The Guardian (London).
[9] Radiation shoots up at Fukushima nuke plant after blast heardKyodo News 15 March 2010
[10]Hiroko Tabuchi, Keith Bradsher, Matt Wald (14 March 2011).“Japan Faces Prospect of Nuclear Catastrophe as Workers Leave Plant”. The New York Times.
[11] “Container damaged, radiation leak feared at Fukushima No.2 reactor”. Kyodo News. 15 March 2011.
[12]Black, Richard (16 March 2011). “Japanese emperor ‘deeply worried’ BBC News”. BBC News. Retrieved 23 March 2011.
[13]Japan Plant Emits More Radiation After Cooling Lapse”. NTI. Retrieved 17 April 2011.
[14]STATEMENT ABOUT THE REACTOR BLUEPRINT AND TEPCO’S ACCUSATIONS House of Foust. Retrieved 31 May 2011.
[15]Radiation Expert: “Sr-90 and Uranium and Particulates Will Be Building Up in the USA and Europe … For Now I Think It Prudent To Stop Drinking Milk” Washington’s Blog. 24 April 2011
[16]“Unit 1 nuclear power plant Fukushima Radiation”. TEPCO. Retrieved 8 April 2011.
[17]Restoration work at Fukushima plant suffers setback in Monday quake”. Retrieved 11 April 2011.
[18]“Status of TEPCO’s Facilities and its services after the Tohoku-Chihou-Taiheiyou-Oki Earthquake(as of 4:00 PM, May 29)”. TEPCO. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 29 May 2011.
[19]“Earthquake News No. 96″. JAIF. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 29 May 2011.
[20]Hiroaki Koide of Kyoto University: “Melted Core Outside the Containment Vessel” 17 May 2011
[21]Fukushima Daiichi Diary: Other Problems 18 May 2011
[22]Tepco vents No. 2 reactor while U.S. surveys ocean 12 June 2011
[23]No. 2, No. 3 reactors remain volatile; meltdowns suspected 18 May 2011
[24]Failed venting tries linked to No. 2 damage 19 May 2011
[25]Reactor No. 6 now has over 6 feet of contaminated water in turbine building 18 May 2011
[26]TEPCO acknowledges ‘vapor’ is still being seen at Reactors No. 2, 3 and 4 spent fuel pools 22 May 2011
[27]TEPCO Now Says High Levels of Cesium Detected Above No1 Fukushima Reactor 25 May 2011
[28]Japan tsunami: Fukushima Fifty, the first interview 15 June 2011
[29]Radiation level in No. 1 reactor building up to 700 millisieverts. 9 May 2011
[30]Second Fukushima reactor open for repair. 20 June 2011
[31]Hose leaking water at Fukushima No.5 reactor 3 July 2011
[32]Water flow falls at No.1 reactor, but restored 4 July 2011
[33]Fukushima nuclear Cam 2011.06.14 00:00-01:00 / (Live Fukushima Nuclear Plant Cam) 14 June 2011
[34]Fukushima nuclear Cam 2011.06.11 03:00-04:00 / (Live Fukushima Nuclear Plant Cam) 11 June 2011
EPA -The EPA trickles out a few more data points across the country. From the EPA:
June 16th,
Today, EPA released the final results from the second round of drinking water samples, which were previously analyzed for iodine. Forty samples were analyzed. No radionuclides associated with the Japanese nuclear incident were detected.June 1, 2011
Today, EPA released new drinking water data. One sample detected very low levels of cesium-137. The level detected is far below a level of public health concern.May 24, 2011
Today, EPA released new data for drinking water, precipitation and milk. Results from two precipitation samples detected low levels of radioactive material consistent with estimated releases from the damaged nuclear reactors.
Remember on May 9th the EPA revealed that they would be scaling back monitoring efforts due to:
consistent decreases in radiation levels across the country associated with the Japanese nuclear incident, EPA will update the daily data summary page only when new data are posted.
Ok. Now lets take a look at some points of interest in the data, released by the EPA, since their statement on May 9th.
1. Precipitation data for Richmond CA as follows:
a. These are the last three data points, for the state of California, released by the EPA. The last collected on April 28th 2011.
b. Richmond CA is the only site in California for which the EPA has released any precipitation monitoring data.
c. The trendline through the data points indicates a decreasing concentration of Cesium-134. However, this evaluation is based on only 3 observations - with the third observation greater than the second. All it takes is one hypothetical observation (taken after 4/28/2011) of precipitation with levels of Cesium-134 greater than 5.2 pCi/l and we would have an increasing level of radioactive rainfall since April 22nd. A narrow precipice indeed.
2. Drinking Water measurements
a. Drinking water measurements throughout California remain sparse. The EPA has released only 4 data points throughout the state (2 in Richmond and 2 in Los Angeles).
b. The last readings taken in Los Angeles (on 4/12/2011 ) indicated elevated levels of Iodine-131 ( .18pCi/l ).
3. Sampling Dates
a. The EPA produces press releases revealing the publication of new data, but it’s important to note when and where the samples were taken. For example on June 16th the EPA says, “Forty samples [of drinking water] were analyzed. No radionuclides associated with the Japanese nuclear incident were detected”. More than half of the forty samples were collected on or before April 15th 2011 - they are now only being released 2 months later.
b. The forty samples, in the latest release, include only 4 data points in Pacific states, and Hawaii ( 2 in California, 1 in Hawaii, and 1 in Oregon). No data was release for Alaska or Washington. The missing data points may very well turn out to be more significant than the data publicly released.
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What is the most common misconception about the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Catastrophe as it relates to Americans?
I hear many Americans, and experts for that matter, contend that the level of radiation dosage we are receiving, from Fukushima NPP, is less than what we would receive from 1 or 2 X-ray examinations. This is true if we are taking into account only external dosage.
This is not true, however, if we are to take into account internal radiation dosage - the concentration of radioactive chemical elements inhaled or ingested into the body. Nuclear Power Plants, unlike medical X-ray devices, can emit into the atmosphere large concentrations of radionuclides - radioactive chemical elements resulting from nuclear fission. Theses radionuclides can include elements such as radioactive Cesium, Iodine, Xenon, Plutonium, Uranium, and Strontium - to name just a few. These elements can be inhaled or ingested if they find their way into our air, water, soil, or food supplies.
In contrast, Medical X-ray devices do not emit radioactive chemical elements by way of nuclear fission; instead most medical X-ray devices emit photons which pass through the skin and are absorbed by bones.
During an X-ray examination, there is no risk of consuming or inhaling radioactive chemical elements.
The radionuclides emitted by Fukushima NPP have now contaminated America’s air, water, soil, and food supply; and there is some risk of inhalation or ingestion of these particles.
So why all the fuss about X-rays, external radiation, bpm’s, and atmospheric levels of radiation? Because it’s simple and cost effective to measure external dose - many initial reports from government and international agencies are based on Geiger counter or air filter readings; and generalizing risks to health becomes more manageable when the effects are estimated based on atmospheric levels and external doses.
Measuring internal dosage is a major undertaking that would require urine or thyroid bioassays, or whole-body counts for a significant portion of the population.
Update(s)
If you’re concerned about radionuclide consumption, its effects on your body, and how to potentially detox your body I will point you toward the following article. Please keep in mind - I have not fully evaluated the following article and I am not endorsing any of its claims; I hope that if nothing else it will serve as a starting point for further research. I have not done much research on this topic - but I plan to in the near future. You can check back here for more links:
April 26th - May 9th
EPA - The EPA makes the surprising announcement that they will scale back radiation monitoring and testing of precipitation, milk, and drinking water. The EPA will resume non-emergency testing frequencies routinely reserved for periods when an nuclear emergency is not on-going.
From the EPA:
May 9th,
Due to the consistent decrease in radiation levels across the country associated with the Japanese nuclear incident, EPA will update the daily data summary page only when new data are posted.After a thorough data review showing declining radiation levels related to the Japanese nuclear incident, EPA has returned to the routine RadNet sampling and analysis process for precipitation, drinking water and milk.
EPA is evaluating the need to continue operating the additional air monitors deployed in response to the Japan nuclear incident. EPA will continue to analyze air filters and cartridges from all air monitors as they arrive at the laboratory and will post the data as available.
Interestingly enough the condition of the Fukushima Plant continues to lay on shaky ground. The NPP contiunes to spew radionuclides into the atmosphere, and EPA monitoring locations up and down the West Coast are showing the highest sustained levels of atmospheric radionuclides to date. Riverside, CA, for example, has registered maximum Beta radiation CPMs of over 100 in 5 of the last 7 days (May 2nd - 9).
Furthermore, The EPA has not posted any data, to their public RadNet sampling data webpage, since April 24th. The highest levels of radiation in rainwater in California were detected in Richmond on April 14th and 22nd.
Questions remain:
1. Where is the most recent RadNet data for concentrations of radionuclides in our air, rain, water, and milk supplies?
2. How can the EPA come to this conclusion when the Fukushima NPP continues to emit radiation into the atmosphere, air filters show elevated levels of atmospheric radionuclides, and plume projection models predict high concentrations of radionuclides in the atmosphere over the United States?
Fukushima NPP - An April 28th public press release by TEPCO included data of radioactive density of the sub-drain of Reactor 1. The data shows concentrations of I-131 orders of magnitude higher than the concentrations of C-137 and C-134. This is important as it indicates, according to analysis by the GLG group, nuclear fission may still be taking place despite the reactor being shutdown.
Live video monitoring footage showed a large amount of airborne particulates billowing up from the Fukushima NPP on the date of May 7th. Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), and the Japanese government gave a joint press conference on Sunday and explained that an unusual amount “substance” emitted from the NPP reactor on Saturday night was steam and did not warrant concern.
Live Video Footage of The Fukushima NPP from May 7th
TEPCO detects radiation levels as high as 700 millisieverts in reactor 1. Alternative forms of shielding will need to be developed before workers can enter the plant. TEPCO opened the doors linking the reactor building to its adjacent turbine building Sunday evening, releasing 5.0 x 10^8 becquerels into the atmosphere.
Dr. Saji former Secretariat of Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission, credits the current status of the accident to “luck”. Lucky because the wind has been blowing east away from the island for a significant portion of this disaster. “Lucky” for the Japanese perhaps. I pose the question: If these particles were blown east over the Pacific and North towards Europe where do the long-lived radionuclides end up?
An advisor to Japan’s government says poor decisions are to blame for the scale of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
April 11th - 25th
EPA - The EPA releases a considerable amount of data including concentrations and specific types of elements contaminating US air, water, and food supplies.
Particularly concerning are the concentrations of radioactive uranium detected by EPA air filters in Riverside, Anaheim, and San Francisco CA and in Hawaii. Because:
1. Uranium has been shown to be genotoxic - this means uranium can bind to DNA and cause mutations. If mutations occur in sperm or eggs genetic defects can be passed down to future progeny.
2. The presence of Uranium suggests the possibility that the Fukushima NPP has emitted not only gases and aerosols but also “hot particles” into the atmosphere. Hot particles occur when particles of Uranium melt together with other radionuclides. Hot particles pose a risk of a high dose of internal radiation even if an individual is in an area of low contamination. (Yablokov, 2009)
EPA Uranium and Plutonium Measurements
The EPA continues to trickle out data. Here are the first and only EPA measurements of radioactive strontium found in the milk supply of Hilo Hawaii.
The EPA has made a surprising change to the way they display RADNET air filter readings. The Gross count beta and gamma air monitoring graphs no longer show any specific data points but instead display a regression analysis of the data. I anticipate this is in response to the recent spikes in atmospheric radionuclides (Riverside, CA Gross Beta Air Monitoring Data, for example, had shown several days with peaks above 100 bpm). The Riverside graph reveals, none the less, an increasing level of atmospheric radionuclides over the West Coast of California. It is also interesting to note that, as of April 26th, the EPA is failing to report RADNET data for many stations up and down the West Coast of the United States.
The Fukushima NPP Reactor - Robots used to survey the Plant recorded very high levels of radiation. BBC did not publish the measurements; but did reveal that oxygen densities in both reactors 1 and 3 were 21%. Additionally, BBC commented that workers would exceed emergency safety measures after 41/2 hours inside the plant. Mum’s definitely the word but even the limited reports coming from Japan indicate the environment inside and around the plant is becoming too toxic for human activity.
Plant operators plan to reduce radiation leaks within 3 months and cool the reactors within 9 months - I anticipate this means, particularly for those of us on the West Coast, a continual bombardment of radionuclides well into the summer months. I recommend monitoring Plume data from ZAMG, UMD, and NILU to determine when peak concentrations of radiation are predicted to reach the West Coast. ZAMG, UMD, and NILU websites can be found in the tools and resources section at the end of this post.
April 6th - Fukushima NPP is still in a heap of trouble:
U.S. Sees Array of New Threats at Japan’s Nuclear Plant
Nitrogen pumped into nuclear reactor
Congressman Edward Markey: Japan No 2 core melted through reactor vessel
April 5th - One of the last EPA Radnet monitoring stations in Southern California (Riverside, CA) has been taken down after showing very large readings (100+ BPM) throughout the morning. Plume trajectories predicted West Coast landfall, of radioactive particles, today April 5th-7th.
UPDATE 12:34 PST: The monitor is now back up showing a reading of approx 30 bpm. San Bernardino and Las Vegas are still showing BPM of 130+. Radiationnetwork.com has taken down all of their Southern Californian monitors.
April 5th - Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) projects a large distribution of Xe-133 over most of the US with peak concentrations April 5th - 7th.
Special Forecast products for Fukushima produced by NILU-ATMOS
April 5th - Dr. Gerhard Wotawa of ZAMG ( Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics in Austria ) warns several locations in the Northern Hemisphere: “Diese Isotope werden auch weiterhin in der Arktis registriert, zum Beispiel in Resolute/Kanada und Spitsbergen/Norwegen. Jod-131 Werte größer als 1000 µBqm-3 werden auch nach wie vor in Teilen der USA registriert. In keinen der hier erwähnten Gebiete besteht Gefahr für die Gesundheit.”
Tranlsated: “These isotopes [Iodine-131 & Cesium-137] are still registered in the Arctic, for example, in Resolute, Canada, and Spitsbergen, Norway. Iodine-131 values greater than 1000 μBqm -3 are still in parts of the United States also registered. In any of the areas mentioned here, there is a risk to health.”
Current conditions after an accident in Fukushima
ZAMG role in monitoring Fukushima: “Today the first CTBTO radionuclide analysis arrived at the ZAMG, in its role as a national data center in Austria for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). It turns out to be important as the data of the CTBTO International Monitoring System for civilian applications”.
CTBTO monitoring network first measure radioactivity on Japan / correction
April 5th - The EPA publishes data containing the results of radiation monitoring in milk, drinking water, and rain water. Accompanying the data was the obligatory statement, “The detections in air, precipitation, and milk were expected, and the levels detected have been far below levels of public-health concern”. Trace amounts of radiation “about 0.2 picocuries per liter [Iodine 131] in each case” were detected in Boise, Idaho and Richland, Washington.
Noticeably missing from the report were any data-points in California. Additionally, the data-points provided by the EPA are few and far between. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Nuclear Radiation falls out in a splotched and uneven distribution. Monitoring is going to be necessary at many points up and down the West Coast (and across the World for that matter).
EPA STATEMENT: Update on Ongoing Monitoring
April 3rd - ZAMG publishes more data containing atmospheric Iodine 131 readings taken from CTBTO monitoring stations around the world. Hawaii shows highest readings to-date.
Data : here
Additionally, ZAMG publishes their first projection of iodine 131 fallout to the ground:
Data: Here
Its important to note that the ZAMG fallout prediction does not extend past Longitude 160° East - Honolulu, Hawaii is located 157° West. We also have atmospheric Iodine 131 readings from CTBTO stations located in Honolulu and Sacramento. Provided we would be taking into account some assumptions - we can start to predict, using the above data, what the fallout levels will look like over Hawaii and California.
April 3rd -The University of Maryland projects, using Hysplit Trajectories, the paths of radioactive plumes emanating from the Fukushima Plant. Currently there is a large plume of low lying radionuclides over the Pacific and moving east towards the West Coasts of Canada and the US.
PLEASE NOTE: Due to unpredictable environmental factors plume trajectories are updated daily and can change.
UPDATE: Currently projections are very unpredictable with possible entry points in California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and the West Coast of Canada.
North American Landfall estimates: April 4th-5th
[monitor this link for up-to-date plume trajectories]:
Here
[Monitor the EPA real-time Radnet monitoring site for unusual fluctuations in radiations levels:]
Here
April 1st - Milk in San Luis Obispo county tests positive for Iodine 131. Story
March 31st - the FDA issues a press statement indicating Radiation has been found in Milk samples from Spokane, Washington ( How about some readings throughout California? How about publishing measurements of cesium 137, strontium 90, or plutonium 239/238 to accompany tests for iodine-131? Where are the facts? where is the data?)
ZAMG and UMD dispersion models predict a higher concentration of radionuclides have passed(and potentially fallen out) over California than Washington. The literature published by Dr. Yablokov suggests nuclear fallout is unevenly distributed - this indicates, to me anyways, that readings will be required across the entire state.
U.S. Detects Trace Amounts of Radiation in Milk
Deposition of fallout cesium 137 on forage and transfer to milk
Its no secret ingested or inhaled radionuclides have long term health consequences (There exists an abundance of published research papers on this topic, here are just a few to give you an idea):
Hepatic cholesterol metabolism following a chronic ingestion of cesium-137
Chronic contamination with 137cesium in rat: effect on liver cholesterol metabolism
And just FYI:
March 30th - Required reading for anybody attempting to make reasonable inferences as to the environmental and health impacts Fukushima will have on California and beyond:
(FREE via Google Books) Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment
March 30th - TEPCO announces they have lost full control of reactors 1-4. Plans to decommission the plants are under way. Japanese experts are considering covering the Fukushima Plants with a special material to attempt to stem the spread of radioactive substances. (Really? Only now measures are being taken to control the spread of radionuclides - after 3 weeks of contaminating the Northern Hemisphere with radioactive garbage? If there were other means to control the Fukushima plants why has it taken so long?)
March 28th ZAMG publishes data, containing atmospheric Iodine-131 readings, collected at radiation monitoring stations from around the world - including one station in Sacramento CA. ZMAG uses the data to validate its dispersion models. Three questions remain -
1. Are the readings taken in Sacramento assumed to be homogeneous across the entire state? (According to Dr. Yablokov, the areas around Chernobyl showed splotched and irregular distributions of radioactive contaminants - ZAMG dispersion models support this)
2. What other types of radionuclides reached the US and what were their densities?
3. Are these levels high enough to contaminate food and water supplies in the US?
Data: Here
Dispersion models: Here
March 25th Recommended Viewing: Esteemed nuclear scientist Dr. Alexey Yablokov, an expert on the long term health consequences of the Chernobyl failure and a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, comments Via a C-SPAN press conference, on the effects the Fukushima failure will have on long term world health; and on the consequences of Mox fuel emission by the Fukushima Reactor 3.http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/Chernob
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Possibly the largest natural and man-made disaster continues to unfold 2 weeks after a 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of Japan; Oddly, most Californians I speak to (and Americans as a whole for that matter) seem apathetic to the potential dangers posed, not only to Japan, but to America and the World as a whole.
It’s understandable, a quick glance at the major US papers reveal Libya and Elizabeth Taylor dominating the headlines - with the Japanese crisis little more than a sidebar blurb.
I’ve tried to omit as much of my own opinion as possible from the following document. I have a healthy skepticism of both Government data and “Official Government Positions” on this issue and I anticipate that will show through in my writing. I assembled this document with the intent of providing sources of information and tools so that you can analyze and track for yourself - the threat that the Japanese Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant poses to Japan, California, the United States, and the World.
I’ve compiled a list of tools and resources at the bottom of this document.
The Cover Up
The Japanese Government continues to, and has since the beginning of the Fukushima Nuclear Plant failure, misrepresent and distort facts that would give us a more clear understanding of the severity of the disaster:
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-japan-quake-secrecy-20110325,0,48349.story?track=rss
The cover up has become so involved that Greenpeace has taken matters into their own hands by sending a team of experts (as of March 24th ) to Japan to record the true level of radioactive particles emitted, by the Fukushima Plant, into the atmosphere and water supply :
*Bookmark this page. Greenpeace should update their findings here; which should provide some of the most unbiased radiation readings from the Japanese Power Plant to date.
Via Greenpeace.org:
“By providing honest, transparent and independent analysis of the threats to public health, we aim to provide an alternative to the often contradictory information released by nuclear regulators in the two weeks since the Fukushima disaster began unfolding.”
The truth of the matter is the Fukushima Nuclear Plant is in worse condition now (March 26th) than could be anticipated:
And it continues to spew contaminates into the atmosphere:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/aktuell/index.php?seite=1&artikel=ZAMG_2011-03-25GMT15:41
And here is video footage from March 24th of steam rising from reactors 1,2,3, and 4:
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/24_18.html
Leaving Chernobyl in the dust
We can be certain that the Fukushima plant is emitting radioactive iodine(iodine-131) and caesium(caesium-137) at unprecedented levels. Japanese readings at the Takashi Radiation Monitoring station suggest the Fukushima plant is emitting radioactive iodine-131 at 1.2 to 1.3 × 10^17 becquerels per day and caesium-137 at a rate of between 5 x 10^15 and 5×10^16 becquerels per day. Calculated across the full accident scenario, one would assume a similar source term of both isotopes as during the accident in Chernobyl.
This recent Greenpeace report confirms the radiation levels suggested by Japanese metering stations. The report indicates the Fukushima Plant has emitted enough radiation to rank at Level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). In fact, enough radionuclides have been emitted to equate to 3 INES 7 incidents. To put this into perspective, the Chernobyl meltdown rates as a Rank 7 on the INES scale. The Three Mile Island disaster ranks as an INES 5.
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/Fukushima–INES-scale-rating/
Chernobyl spewed 1.76 × 10^18 becquerels of iodine-131 over the span of 10 days, which amounts to only 50 per cent more per day than has been calculated for Fukushima Daiichi. Additionally, Chernobyl emitted 8.5 × 10^16 in total caesium-137.
The kicker? Fukushima, at 1760 metric tons of fresh and used nuclear fuel, has 10 times the amount of fuel as Chernobyl (50 times more fuel than Three Mile Island). The Plant is still emitting radiation - We can’t be sure how much longer it will continue to do so.
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/03/how-much-fuel-is-at-risk-at-fukushima.html?rss=1
Side note: Reactor 3 of the Fukushima power plant uses Mox Plutonium Fuel. Rarely is this mentioned in any news or scientific publication. Does anyone know the ramifications of a meltdown in Reactor 3?
http://www.infowars.com/japanese-authorities-admit-deadly-mox-plutonium-reactor-is-leaking/
Update: Dr. Alexey Yablokov has commented on the dangers of Mox Fuel emission during a C-SPAN press conference. According to Dr. Yablokov the World has never seen a Mox Fuel failure before, and if plutonium has been released by Reactor 3, the contaminated area will never be habitable again:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/Chernob
California Here We Come
Did these radioactive particles reach the US? You’re damn right they did - in a big way. Sacramento CA showed similar readings to those taken at the Takashi Radiation Monitoring station. For the first two days after the accident, the wind blew east from Fukushima towards monitoring stations on the US west coast - The plume of radiation was moving fast; and quickly swept over the West Coast and mainland of the United States. Eventually making its way into Europe.
As of the 24th giant plumes of radiation are pummeling the West Coasts of the United States and Mexico.
An alarming map showing the plume on March 24th:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/display.php?imgPath=/pict/aktuell/20110325_Reanalyse-I131-Bild4_gr.jpg&imgTitle=Radioaktivit%26auml%3Bt+von+Fukushima+12+Tage+nach+Beginn+des+Unfalles%3A+Extrem+verd%26uuml%3Bnnte+Radioaktivit%26auml%3Bt+%26uuml%3Bber+Europa&imgSource=%26copy%3B+ZAMG&imgWidth=842&imgHeight=596
Today the 26th of March, according to the Austrian Meteorological Society, the wind has shifted and is blowing east, and hard, from Japan - bringing with it another wave of radioactive debris. North-westerly winds are anticipated to continue through the 27th. Looking outside its been a sullen day in Southern California with dark ominous clouds overhead and very rarely a glimpse of sunlight.
hint: Google Chrome will translate this for you:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/docs/aktuell/Japan2011-03-25_1600_E_1.pdf
Is the US in Danger?
According the the EPA (environmental protection agency) we are not necessarily in any immediate threat from radiation exposure. Inhalation or consumption of radioactive particles is another hotly contested issue.
http://www.ecoshock.info/2011/03/nuclear-nightmare-continues.html
Update: Dr. Alexey Yablokov has commented on the potential long term health ramifications of the Fukushima Plant failure. He warns of situations developing that are similar to those experienced during Chernobyl; namely potential importation, into the United States, of contaminated food. What concerns me is he specifically identifies food products from countries not located close to the Chernobyl disaster, products like herrings from Norway, cheese from Germany, figs from Turkey. Is it possible the US food supply could be contaminated by the Fukushima Plant failure? I don’t know - and Dr. Yablokov didn’t say.
I believe if the situation in Japan continues to digress, and they lose full control of reactors 1,2,3 or 4 the EPA’s stance could change. Why? We’ve already experienced beta radiation levels, here in the US, that indicate abnormal levels - which under normal circumstances would trigger a radiation warning.
Radiation levels collected by the EPA over Los Angeles. Note: levels of beta radiation over 100 cpm are considered abnormal:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-losangeles-bg.html
Under normal circumstances? What in the hell do you mean? The EPA’s radiation data is unreliable. We cannot make any reasonable inferences from the data their Radnet monitors have collected since the Fukushima disaster. It’s is important to understand that the EPA’s radiation monitoring system on the West Coast is malfunctioning and may not be able to provide ample warning of any impending radiation danger. 8 of the 18 EPA’s Radnet monitors along the West Coast have been taken offline because they are showing irregular radiation readings.
http://www.latimes.com/health/la-me-radiation-california-20110325,0,3305630.story
Here is an example of radiation readings taken from a Radnet monitor in Fresno CA:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-fresno-bg.html
And one from Bakersfield:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-bakersfield-bg.html
If these readings were taken literally the implications are not good. As you can see both monitors were taken offline sometime around March 18th.
if you are confused about cpm’s and radiation readings this resource does a good job of spelling it out:
http://modernsurvivalblog.com/nuclear/radiation-geiger-counter-the-radiation-network/
Here is the map of all of the Radnet sensors across the US:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-data-map.html
I’ve set up an account with the EPA so that I can monitor the Radnet system radiation readings in real time. I’ll be following these closely in coming days. I suggest you do the same:
https://cdx.epa.gov/ssl/cdx/regwarning.asp?Referer=registration
A slightly more transparent, but less robust, monitoring network is the Radiation Network. I’ll be following them as well:
http://www.radiationnetwork.com/
Long term radiation contamination prospects in the US and beyond
Scientist can not agree on the impact small amounts of radiation have on a contaminated environment. The death toll and environmental impact of Chernobyl is still debated to this day - with figures ranging from 4,000 to half a million deaths caused by the meltdown:http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/10/chernobyl-nuclear-deaths-cancers-dispute
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/features/chernobyl-deaths-180406/
Dr Seth Tuler PhD, Research Fellow at the Social and Environmental Research Institute in Greenfield MA, explains the issue aptly,
“The science that informs much of our understanding of radiation effects on health is from studies of survivors of the US nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. These like many other studies are often in the form of epidemiological studies of low dose radiation exposure. For low doses, these studies are often inconclusive and it is difficult or impossible to show links of causation with certainty. Studies can be inconclusive when there is poor information about the actual exposures or who was exposed (both problems tend to cause underestimations of the real effect).”
In essence the crux of the debate is that absence of an observed effect is not proof of no effect.
http://www.psr.org/resources/health-risks-releases-radioactivity.pdf
Tools and Resources
EPA Radnet Login: https://cdx.epa.gov/ssl/cdx/login.asp
EPA Japan 2011 homepage: http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/index.html
EPA Public Realtime Map view: https://cdxnode64.epa.gov/radnet-public/showMap.do
Radiation Network radiation monitoring: http://www.radiationnetwork.com/
Greenpeace homepage: http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/
Greenpeace Radiation Tracking: http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/nuclear/safety/accidents/Fukushima-nuclear-disaster/Radiation-field-team/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=webpage&utm_term=032511_1100&utm_campaign=nuclear
Radiation Levels and Measurements: http://modernsurvivalblog.com/nuclear/radiation-geiger-counter-the-radiation-network/
Austrian Meteorological Society (these guys produce, in my opinion, some of the most transparent coverage of the Fukushima Crisis). Use Google Chrome to translate:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/
IAEA (The International Atomic Energy Agency) : http://www.slideshare.net/iaea
Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment by Dr. Alexey Yablokov(free Via Google Books): Here
Plume Dispersion Models (via The University of Maryland): http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~tcanty/hysplit/
Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) : http://transport.nilu.no/products/fukushima
TEPCO public press releases: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/index-e.html
Google Chrome: http://www.google.com/chrome
If I have missed any essential tools or resources please leave me a comment and I will update my list.
Special Thanks to:
http://washingtonsblog.com/
For this write-up:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/03/no-amount-of-radiation-released-from.html
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Past Updates
April 4th - The Fukushima Plant dumps 11,500 tons of radioactive water into the ocean. 10,000 tons came from a communal storage facility near the number 4 reactor and another 1,500 tons came from a facility near reactor 5,6. As, usual the Government has said “There is no immediate concern for danger.” (Does this mean we should have concern for the mid and long range environmental and World health impacts? I think so.)
Radioactive water from Japanese nuclear plant dumped into sea
April 1st - The EPA has released a press statement indicating that radiation, below levels of concern, has reached the US. They cite filter analysis from 12 RadNet filters across the US.Its important to note that the RadNet filters are little more than Geiger counters which measure levels of alpha, beta, and gamma radiation in our atmosphere. These readings tell us nothing of the type or concentrations of the radionuclides that have fallen out over California and the US. We will need to wait for the readings from the CTBTO monitoring stations, before we have accurate measures of the types and concentrations of radionuclides - which as far as I know have not been published (other than the few reports from the CTBTO released to the public by ZAMG as cited in the March 28th update). Soil, water, and milk analysis from the FDA, will give us the most accurate indication of fallout levels on land and in our water - but they’ve only published one such report cited in the March 31st update.
March 28th:Fukushima Reactor 3 is emitting steam into the atmosphere. Radiation has swept across the Northern Hemisphere and is now detected in South Korea (use Google Chrome to translate):
March 27th: Japanese workers pulled out of reactor, as radiation soars to 10 million times the normal level:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12872707
And shortly after the Japanese report has been rescinded, citing a mistake in reporting:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12875327
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Beau Bergquist
G`mail: beau dot adtorrent
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